Wednesday, September 17, 2025
A volatile session after the Fed announcement but the Dow managed a gain of 260 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were abut even. The summation index is still trying to move higher. Rates were lowered as expected. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small losses. The market rallied after the Fed announcement only to give it all back and have a sharp decline. Then things turned right back around again to positive territory and finally drift lower in the final half hour. We finished well up from the lows on the day. The S&P is still short term overbought. During todays gyrations my SPY September puts got stopped out for a 33% loss. At one point they were showing a 100% gain. Todays results are an example of the stop loss order working against you as there could have been profits if not stopped out. However you are trying to cut your losses with the order so the trade doesn't go to zero. Perhaps I should have canceled the stop loss when things got volatile but hindsight is always correct. I wouldn't say the trade was mismanaged but obviously I'd feel a lot better if there would have been a profit. The sell signal we had did work but for only a very short period of time and not with a huge move in price. Not what I expected. Or perhaps the selling isn't done yet. We'll know more as the trading week is completed. Gold finished off $31 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU fell 1 1/8 and GDX lost 1/3. Volume was good. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated booking another losing trade. There wasn't a lot of money involved but it has been a tough year on the trading front so far. The VIX finished lower today despite the increased volatility. Some of the short term indicators have turned back down. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. We'll see. Two days left in option expiration week and I'm back on the sidelines. I'll start looking at the October options. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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