Tuesday, September 30, 2025
End of the month buying as the Dow gained 91 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still heading lower. The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move within the next two days. Didn't get it today so we'll see about tomorrow. Today was a sideways affair until a mild rally in the final two hours. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 led the way. The short term indicators for the S&P are slowly moving higher. I still think that new all time highs are coming soon for the NASDAQ and S&P. The Dow closed at a record today. The question now is how to postion ourselves ahead of Fridays jobs report. If we continue higher ahead of Friday I might try the SPY October puts but it would be risky. The market is overbought on many of the indicators though. Gold was up $32 on the futures to another new all time high. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was up 2 7/8, while GDX rose 2/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought. I did place an overnight order for the GDX October puts and I'm leaving it out there. Not a lot of money invovled so I'm willing to take the risk here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today which again doesn't fit with an up market. The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are getting tighter. Still mid-range for the short term indicators here. My guess would be that the VIX drops and we see a rally for stocks but who knows? Beginning of October tomorrow. Europe finished higer and Asia was mixed again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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