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Monday, September 29, 2025

A positive start to the week as the Dow gained 69 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's plus. End of the month tomorrow. The highlight of the week will be the jobs report on Friday. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are starting to stall after turning back up. They are not as overbought as they have been. My guess is that we'll be heading back to new all time highs at some point this week. Gold was up $47 to a new all time high on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 points and GDX gained a point. Volume was average. The gold shares did finish well below their highs on the session. I'm still considering the GDX October puts and may place an order overnight. The 5 wave upside pattern for GDX that began in August that I thought was valid has been negated. GDX has moved above what I thought was the fifth and final wave higher. However on the gold itself weekly chart it appears that gold is in the 5th and final wave higher from 2022. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are at mid-range so it could go either way from here. I'm still not sure what to expect next from this indicator. Asia was mixed and Europe little changed to begin the trading week. There is a potential US government shutdown tomorrow night but the market doesn't seem to care. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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