Tuesday, September 09, 2025
Hanging around waiting on the inflation data as the Dow gained 196 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to move up but it can't seem to break free from the sideways channel. We did get a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move in the next two sessions so we'll have to see if that happens tomorrow. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Record highs across the board for the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500. There is no overhead resistance. The S&P 500 continues to be on the overbought side of things. I did adjust my open order for the SPY September puts but it will take some more gains to be filled. I'm trying to be cautious right now because it looks like the market can go either way here. There are not enough clear signals to go one way or the other right now. The negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart is still there but I believe that we'll be moving on the inflation data in the next couple of sessions. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dipped 3 1/8, while GDX lost over 1/3. Volume was a bit above average. The technical picture for GDX remains the same. Short term overbought for weeks and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a touch lower again today. Still on the oversold side of things for the short term picture. Can't say that I have a good idea on what to expect next on the VIX. The daily candlestick chart here looks to me as though it wants to go lower which would be supportive of stocks. Asia and Europe finished mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on the market reaction to the data tomorrow.
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