Tuesday, September 16, 2025
It was a one day downside reversal for most of the major indices as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still trying to move higher but has had a tough time doing so. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had very slight declines. It's simply a waiting game ahead of whatever happens with the Fed tomorrow. The S&P is still short term overbought. I've still got the SPY September puts with only three days left before option expiration. They are still showing just a very small profit. The outcome of this trade will lie with the market reaction to the Fed tomorrow. One of our indicators remains in sell signal territory, so we'll see if this works tomorrow. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was sharply lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU lost 6 1/3 and GDX fell about 1 1/2. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are still overbought but they have turned down. Gold should move off of the Fed tomorrow as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators are moving up. The VIX did close above its 50 day moving average. My hope is that it keeps moving higher but hope is not a trading strategy. Not sure where the VIX is heading tomorrow. Waiting on the Fed and that's all we can do at this point. Management of the trade in progress will be key. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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