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Friday, August 15, 2025

We had a one day downside reversal on many of the stock indices but the Dow managed a gain of 35 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posting losses. Retail sales came in where expected. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. If it heads lower from here the negative RSI divergence on the daily chart will be valid. I am already looking at the SPY September puts but the premiums are high. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU was up two points and GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light. GDX is still short term overbought and has been trending sideways for a week. No trades planned there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with an overall down market. Still short term oversold here. The Dow hit a new intra-day high today but did not close at a record. Perhaps next week. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. The extra week in the September option cycle makes it tough to find a reasonably priced option at the moment. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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