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Friday, August 22, 2025

We certainly got more than just a bounce today as the Dow soared 846 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 9 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned around and is heading higher. The Dow and NASDAQ led the way with the Dow closing at a record high to finally catch up with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500. The Fed chairman spoke and stocks like what they heard. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned back up. Expect new highs for the S&P next week with no overhead resistance. The move lower from the negative RSI divergence is over. Not sure if we'll see another divergence soon. It will depend on the price action next week. Gold added $35 on the futures. The US dollar got pounded lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 4 1/4, while GDX rose another 7/8. Volume was about average. GDX remains short term overbought and is getting pretty far from its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX sank today to its lowest level in months. The short term indicators have rolled back to oversold territory. My guess is that the rally continues with the VIX at these low levels. The market was waiting on the Fed and now that is out of the way. Not a lot of econmoic data next week but we will get inflation data on Friday. It will also be the last unofficial week of summer with Labor day weekend on tap. Not sure now what the next trade will be. I'll check the charts over the weekend to try and come up with something. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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