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Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Inflation data came in where expected and the markets took off to the upside as the Dow gained 483 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. New all time highs for the NASDAQ and S&P 500. No overhead resistance now. The S&P remains short term overbought on some of its indicators. My SPY August put trade went from a small gain to a medium loss overnight. My stop loss order was hit for a 40% drop on the trade. The techncial set up was OK for this idea but not the best that it could have been. I think that I was anxious to make a trade since I hadn't done one in a few months. I also think that I relied too much for a favorable reaction to the economic data on the trade rather than the techncial set up. Although the entry was good, the gap higher at todays open doomed this trade. The theme for me so far this year has been missed trades and losing trades. Needs to be corrected. Gold was off five bucks today. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was up 2 2/3, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was pretty light. GDX continues to be short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was sharply lower today and is now below the 15 level. The short term indicators here are oversold. During rallies they remain that way and that might happen now. Three days left in the August option cycle and I should remain on the sidelines. But who knows? I might try the August puts again ahead of Friday but it would be very risky. Asia and Europe were up for the most part. India and Germany posted losses. If the up/down pattern holds the S&P will be lower tomorrow. We'll see.

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