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Monday, August 11, 2025

The market continues with its alternating up and down day pattern as the Dow fell 200 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending lower. It was quiet for much of the session until we got some last minute gyrations. The Dow led the way lower and that isn't the most bearish scenario. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 posted small losses. The short term indicators for the S&P are beginning to stall. I did place an order for the SPY August puts this morning and this time it got filled near the high for the day. The entry point was spot on. It is showing a small profit at the moment. Tomorrows inflation data will probably determine the fate of this idea. Gold lost $90 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell a point and GDX dipped 1/3. Volume was light. Gold got clobbered and the gold shares did not. That is a positive for the gold share indices. GDX remains short term overbought. Money simply continues to flow into this area. Mentally I'm feeling a little tired. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up. If successful, the market will continue lower and the SPY put idea will work. If not we'll probably head up to new all time highs. Tomorrow will most likely be the key. Asia higher and Europe lower to start the trading week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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