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Thursday, August 14, 2025

The inflation data came in hotter than expected but after a small gap lower at the open the market basically went sideways. The Dow was off 11 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now starting to track sideways. Bad news was not met with extended selling as liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem for this market. Perhaps it is the positive option expiration bias but we don't know for sure. The negative breadth does show some underlying weakness. But we can't argue with price. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 both ended the day about unchanged. We'll get retail sales tomorrow on expiration Friday. The technical configuration for the S&P remains the same. Short term overbought with a possible negative RSI divergence. Gold was down $22 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and so were interest rates. The XAU fell two points and GDX shed 1/3. Volume is still pretty light here. GDX remains in short term overbought territory. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit higher today but still at a low overall level. The short term indicators are oversold. Not sure what to expect next here on the VIX but being this low it's expected for the rally in stocks to continue. We will be rolling into the September option cycle that will have an extra week in it. Premiums will be high. Asia was lower except for India, while Europe was higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

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