Tuesday, August 05, 2025
Back to the downside today as the Dow dipped 62 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ led the way lower. It was another one day downside reversal. The short term indicators for the S&P are about mid-range. I'm getting the idea that things could go either way here. I still want to try the SPY puts at some point before option expiration next week. The Bollinger bands for the S&P remain tight so I believe that we will get some kind of tradeable move soon. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were mixed. The XAU was up 6 1/8, while GDX added 1 1/2. Volume was good to the upside as the gold shares have broken out. Our only hope now is that GDX revisits the breakout point at around 54.5 so that we can get some calls. GDX is on the way to short term overbought but not there yet. The gold shares outperforming the metal itself is bullish. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit higher today. The short term indicators here are stalling at the mid-range level. Not sure what's next here for the VIX. Volatility has returned though. The market is light on economic data this week. Asia and Europe finished generally higher. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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