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Monday, August 04, 2025

Quite a bounce back today as the Dow gained 585 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. We were looking for a rally out of nowhere and we got it today. However I have to say not so fast on buying those SPY August puts as this particular rally might have legs. We are going to have to patiently wait for a signal with less than two weeks to go in the August option cycle. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving back up. The broadness of todays price action leads me to believe that there will be more near term gains. Gold rose thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dropped a touch. The XAU was up 9 1/4 and GDX jumped 2 1/2. Volume was above average. GDX is on the verge of breaking out of a two month consolidation to the upside. The short term indicators are moving up with room to go. It looks like I've missed out on the calls here again. Just as we started looking at the GDX September calls they took off to the upside without us. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned right back down and closed beneath both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Some of the short term indicators have turned back down. Tomorrows VIX movement could tell us a lot about where things are going. Perhaps. We didn't see any real selling today in the stock market as it gapped higher at the open and just kept on going. This happened despite the huge losses on Friday. Interesting times. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

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