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Wednesday, August 20, 2025

More overall selling today but the Dow once again managed a gain. The most watched index rose 16 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to move sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted losses with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. This is not a positive development. Stocks did come up off of the lows today and that may lead to some kind of try to rally from here. The short term indicators for the S&P are still heading down but might be trying to turn around. I would think that tomorrow will be a wait and see session before the Fed chairmans speech on Friday. I'm all for letting this week go by before attempting the next trade. Gold was up $33 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged while interest rates were a touch lower. The XAU was up five points and GDX gained 1 2/3. Volume was light once again. GDX is still in a sideways range that now has lasted two weeks. The short term indicators here have turned back up but they are not completely overbought yet. No GDX trades for me here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today and did come back from touching its 50 day moving average. Most of the short term indicators here are still oversold. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to head lower. That would imply a dovish Fed on Friday. We'll see. Still a summertime market here getting to late August. Asia was higher with the exception of Japan and Europe was lower with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see if there are any breaking news developments overnight.

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