Thursday, October 10, 2024
We had a gap down at the open as the inflation data was just a bit hotter than expected. The rest of the day was spent in a sideways trading range as the Dow lost 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The market had reasons to sell off today but it didn't. So it turned into a day of hanging around. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts is still out there but we are running out of time. Also time premium is beginning to get sucked out of the options so the price on the puts dropped today despite a drop in the S&P. So this trade may not still be the best idea. I'll see if it gets filled heading into the weekend but if not it will be canceled and maybe for good. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 4 1/3 and GDX was up over a buck. Volume was average. The technical case for the gold share calls was there but I did not take advantage of it. Concentrating on the SPY probably cost me the opportunity here. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up from oversold and should have more room to go on the upside. One day doesn't make a trend but GDX has also bounced off of its short term up trend line. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a touch higher today. The short term indicators here are trying to roll over. If successful there should be new all time highs for the S&P in the near future. We'll have to see how the market reacts to the PPI tomorrow. Asia was up and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll see how things go on Friday.
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