Tuesday, October 08, 2024
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 126 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ clearly led the way today and that is a plus. So now the S&P 500 remains in a sideways channel and I am not sure where it goes next. The short term indicators have turned back up for the S&P and it can probably go either way here. You can again make the case for an upside breakout. You can also find technical reasons for stocks to move lower here as well. When in doubt stay out is usually good advice. We are running out of time in the October option cycle. I did adjust the price lower on my open order for the SPY October puts but this may not be the right idea if we continue higher. The inflation data on Thursday and Friday could spark big moves either way. The data is supposed be coming in light. I suppose that I'll see how things go tomorrow and take it from there. Gold was off $24 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates were little changed. The XAU lost 1 1/8 and GDX finished flat. Both were up from the lows on the day. Volume was light. Both the XAU and GDX hit their 50 day moving averages today. They are also both short term oversold. You can make the case that the GDX calls should be purchased here and I would not argue with that. I did look out to the November option cycle here but the premiums are still a bit high for me. Gold down and the gold shares holding up rather well is bullish for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the upside in stocks. Still short term overbought here which makes me think that we'll see more near term upside for the market. It is another reason to reconsider the SPY puts here. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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