Monday, October 28, 2024
Higher to begin the week but not a lot of conviction as the Dow climbed 273 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. The Dow led the way today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. We had a gap up at the open and then traded sideways to lower for the rest of the day. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 had slight gains and lagged the Dow. The TRAN was up over 1%. The S&P is still in a sideways trading range with the short term indicators at around mid-range. I'm leaning towards the SPY calls here as the last time the summation index turned down and the market went sideways we saw an upside break in prices. But we'll wait and see for now because the short term up trend line on the S&P has been violated. Gold finished flat on the session but up off of its lows. The US dollar was flat as well and interest rates went higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and appear to be trying to turn back up. I'm still going to wait for an oversold condition before trying the GDX calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today as the Bollinger bands continue to tighten. Back below 20 here. I'm still not sure what's next for the VIX but the Bollinger bands are forecasting that something is brewing there. Earnings still coming in and important economic reports due Thursday and Friday. SPY option premiums are still high. Europe and Asia were up to start the week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.
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