Friday, October 11, 2024
The inflation data was a touch lighter than expected and the market took off to the upside. The Dow climbed 409 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower but not as rapid. The Dow was the leader and that isn't the most bullish scenario but we cannot argue with price. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and is now at its upper Bollinger band. It remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts was filled this morning and is showing a loss as my timing was early. Had I waited until later in the session I could have gotten a better entry point. However we'll trade it from where it is. I'm still a believer in this idea but we'll need to see some weakness early next week for the trade to work. Monday is a partial holiday as the bond market will be closed. Gold jumped $34 today on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates were just a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. A nice move for gold but the gold shares lagging isn't a bullish sign. Especially when the overall martket had such a positive day. Not sure what to make of it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators are rolling over but it isn't steep or decisive just yet. Still above the 20 level on the VIX. The light volume rally continues but I do not think that it will end well as we never trust moves without volume. Perhaps it can stay together next week with the usual positive options expiration bias. But we'll see. I'm in the next trade now and the focus will be there. We'll check the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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