A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 161 points on light volume to another record close. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is back to heading sideways. The NASDAQ barely posted a gain and the S&P 500 was off a point. The S&P remains short term overbought. I remain convinced that it needs to take a pause. Expiration Friday tomorrow, not sure what that will bring. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU gained 1 1/2 and GDX was up another 1/2. Volume was average. The GDX calls would have worked in the October option cycle and that was a trade that I missed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are still at the mid-range level but appear to be picking up steam heading down. This would imply lower VIX readings and still yet higher stock prices going forward. Still waiting for the TRAN and The NASDAQ to confirm the new all time highs for the Dow and they are almost there but not yet. Confirmation would change my idea about a drop for stocks in the near term. It is something worth keeping an eye on in my view. Europe higher and Asia lower overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Back to the upside as the Dow gained 337 points on light volume. Another record close there. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index higher. The Dow led the way today and that is not the most bullish scenario. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 were higher but not as much as the Dow. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought and heading sideways. I sold my SPY October puts for an 85% loss. This was one of those trades that was a failure from the beginning and never showed any profit. My timing was off early which can't happen on short term trades. I might have to simply skip the short term ideas going forward because my track record there isn't all that good. I do still think that things will head lower from here however I can't wait around for the market to cooperate. I could be wrong. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar continues higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/3. Volume was average. Both finished off of their highs for the session and have bearish evening stars on their daily candlestick charts. The short term indicators for GDX are still rising though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is back below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back down but still with no conviction. Getting to mid-range on the indicators for the VIX. Some economic data out tomorrow with retail sales being the most watched. More earnings due as well. I'll be on the sidelines for now. Asia and Europe were mostly lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Some sellers showed up today as the Dow fell 324 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. No real reason for todays decline but the market has been short term overbought for an extended period of time. The NASDAQ led the way lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower but remain in overbought territory. I'm still a believer in some type of decline from here but it probably won't be in time to save my SPY October put trade. It remains a big loser with only three days to go. I was a day early on this trade and timing is everything when there isn't much left of it in an option cycle. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dropped. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators are moving up from mid-range for GDX which implies more gains here in the near term. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which fits the down market. Back above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are trying to turn back up. If successful it should lead to more selling in the near term. We'll see. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Continuing to the upside on a partial holiday Monday as the Dow added 201 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought as it has been for quite a while. My SPY October puts got crushed today and this trade will end up being a loser unless a sell off appears out of the blue. I'm too far out of the money with only four days to go before option expiration. Shorts got squeezed along with index put owners. I still cannot believe that the market continues higher with such light volume but price is the ultimate judge and jury. No overhead resistance so I'm not sure how long this goes on. Gold was off $7. The US dollar was higher and the bond market was closed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves in either direction on extremely light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the upside for stocks. The short term indicators here continue to drift lower with no conviction. Back below the 20 level now on the VIX. Not much economic data due out this week but we will have earnings reports to deal with. Europe and Asia were generally higher to start the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

The inflation data was a touch lighter than expected and the market took off to the upside. The Dow climbed 409 points on light volume. The advance/declines were just shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower but not as rapid. The Dow was the leader and that isn't the most bullish scenario but we cannot argue with price. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and is now at its upper Bollinger band. It remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts was filled this morning and is showing a loss as my timing was early. Had I waited until later in the session I could have gotten a better entry point. However we'll trade it from where it is. I'm still a believer in this idea but we'll need to see some weakness early next week for the trade to work. Monday is a partial holiday as the bond market will be closed. Gold jumped $34 today on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates were just a bit lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. A nice move for gold but the gold shares lagging isn't a bullish sign. Especially when the overall martket had such a positive day. Not sure what to make of it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators are rolling over but it isn't steep or decisive just yet. Still above the 20 level on the VIX. The light volume rally continues but I do not think that it will end well as we never trust moves without volume. Perhaps it can stay together next week with the usual positive options expiration bias. But we'll see. I'm in the next trade now and the focus will be there. We'll check the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We had a gap down at the open as the inflation data was just a bit hotter than expected. The rest of the day was spent in a sideways trading range as the Dow lost 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues lower. The market had reasons to sell off today but it didn't. So it turned into a day of hanging around. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts is still out there but we are running out of time. Also time premium is beginning to get sucked out of the options so the price on the puts dropped today despite a drop in the S&P. So this trade may not still be the best idea. I'll see if it gets filled heading into the weekend but if not it will be canceled and maybe for good. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 4 1/3 and GDX was up over a buck. Volume was average. The technical case for the gold share calls was there but I did not take advantage of it. Concentrating on the SPY probably cost me the opportunity here. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned up from oversold and should have more room to go on the upside. One day doesn't make a trend but GDX has also bounced off of its short term up trend line. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a touch higher today. The short term indicators here are trying to roll over. If successful there should be new all time highs for the S&P in the near future. We'll have to see how the market reacts to the PPI tomorrow. Asia was up and Europe slightly lower overnight. We'll see how things go on Friday.

A new all time closing high for the Dow as it gained 431 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving lower though. The breadth on this advance is lacking but you cannnot argue with price. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high as well. Still short term overbought on the indicators here but not completely. The market isn't waiting for the inflation data as it continues higher. The volume is light though and I don't trust light volume rallies. I have once again adjusted my open order for the SPY puts to a higher strike price as I am still in the camp that the October puts will work at some point. But I could be wrong. There is no overhead resistance now for the S&P. However the daily candlestick chart has the look of a rising wedge which would be bearish if correct. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Once again they came up off of the lows for the session. GDX is short term overbought and at its 50 day moving average. The GDX November calls are still a bit too pricey for me but you can certainly make the case to buy the gold share calls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term overbought. Not sure what's happening with the VIX as it usually doesn't stay overbought for long. Still above the 20 level here. Not sure how the market will react to the inflation data in the morning. We were up a lot today so even if the data is benign I'm not sure what the effect will be. My guess is that the PPI will come in hotter than the CPI so I might just get some of the SPY October puts tomorrow if my adjusted order isn't filled. But that's a decision for tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll watch tonights headlines and check the reaction to the inflation report on Thursday.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 126 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ clearly led the way today and that is a plus. So now the S&P 500 remains in a sideways channel and I am not sure where it goes next. The short term indicators have turned back up for the S&P and it can probably go either way here. You can again make the case for an upside breakout. You can also find technical reasons for stocks to move lower here as well. When in doubt stay out is usually good advice. We are running out of time in the October option cycle. I did adjust the price lower on my open order for the SPY October puts but this may not be the right idea if we continue higher. The inflation data on Thursday and Friday could spark big moves either way. The data is supposed be coming in light. I suppose that I'll see how things go tomorrow and take it from there. Gold was off $24 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat again and interest rates were little changed. The XAU lost 1 1/8 and GDX finished flat. Both were up from the lows on the day. Volume was light. Both the XAU and GDX hit their 50 day moving averages today. They are also both short term oversold. You can make the case that the GDX calls should be purchased here and I would not argue with that. I did look out to the November option cycle here but the premiums are still a bit high for me. Gold down and the gold shares holding up rather well is bullish for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits the upside in stocks. Still short term overbought here which makes me think that we'll see more near term upside for the market. It is another reason to reconsider the SPY puts here. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Selling to start the week as the Dow fell 398 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. We were lower from the start and just kept on going. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus. The S&P 500 is still in a sideways channel but appears to be ready to break to the downside. Whatever I thought about the S&P going on to making new all time highs here has changed. The short term techncial indicators on the S&P have rolled back over. It appears that I am too late for the SPY October puts but my open order remains out there. Fridays price action now looks like the final bounce before we head south. Premiums on the SPY puts have increased. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates continued to rise. The XAU dropped 2 1/8, while GDX was off 1/2. Volume was light. GDX has now reached short term oversold but not completely. Do we switch ideas here and try the GDX October calls? Not sure as all the recent declines for GDX have made it below its 50 day moving average and we are not there yet. But perhaps we can start to look at the Novermber calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and now is firmly above the important level of 20. The VIX is also now short term overbought and it usually doesn't stay that way for long. It is above the upper Bollinger band as well. So it is hard to make a case for chasing the SPY puts here unless the VIX at least turns around from these levels. But the more likely scenario is that I've missed this opportunity for the October puts. Inflation data out later this week on Thursday and Friday. That should provide a catalyst for more price movement one way or the other. Asia was up with the exception of India and Europe was generally higher. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report came in better than expected and the market liked what it saw. The Dow climbed 341 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus. We were due for some kind of positive move and it showed up. The next question is are we on our way to new all time closing highs for the S&P 500 to follow the Dow? It appears that may be the case. The recent negative price action now looks like a consolidation on the way to higher prices. But one day doesn't make a trend as they say. However the short term indicators on the S&P have now turned back up and I would not rule out new all time highs there early next week. I could be wrong. My open order for the SPY October puts remains in place. Another day like today would certainly get the order filled and I'll have to decide over the weekend what to do. Perhaps move to another strike price or maybe forget about this idea altogether. Gold was off $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates for the third day in a row. The XAU had a fractional loss and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. Middle East tensions are keeping a bid in the gold shares. Normally a stronger dollar and higher interest rates would be negative for the gold shares. Still not completely short term oversold for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and that fits the upside that we saw in stocks today. Still short term overbought here so the VIX implies that we'll see higher equity prices going forward. It is another reason to reconsider the SPY puts here. There will be plenty of time to figure out the path when going over the charts this weekend. Asia and Europe were mostly higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Waiting on the employment data as the Dow dropped 189 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trying to move lower now. The Dow led the way down and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Some of our work says that at least some kind of bounce is due now. Whether or not it happens tomorrow remains to be seen. We also have the backdrop of the constant headlines out of the Middle East as the world tries to contemplate the possiblity of all out war. We stick with the technicals as the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over with plenty of room to move lower. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher tomorrow but any upside could be short lived. Or the market continues to drop and in that case we will have missed the SPY October puts idea. My open order for the puts is still out there but nowhere near to be getting filled. Probably will have to adjust it going forward. Gold rose $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates again. The gold shares followed the overall market lower with the XAU off 2 3/4 and GDX shedding 3/4. Volume was on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX are not yet oversold. Perhaps there will be a chance at the GDX calls in the October option cycle but it would be strictly a short term trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above the 20 level. Getting to short term overbought on the indicators here. This is why it could be tough to try the puts here because the VIX usually doesn't stay overbought for long. This also why tomorrows price action is important. If the market falls then trying the SPY October puts might be out of the question. If the market rises then trying the puts will make more sense as there will be some breathing room to go higher on the VIX next week. As always there are many moving parts to the option trades that must be taken into consideration. Europe was lower and Asia mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what the market reaction is to the jobs report tomorrow.

A one day reversal to the upside today as the market opened lower and finished higher. The Dow rose 39 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted very slight gains. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over but might be beginning to stall. I did place an order for the SPY October puts overnight. It will take some gains to be filled and I'm leaving the order out there. Waiting on the jobs data Friday so I'm not sure what to expect out of tomorrows session. Gold dipped $11 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on pretty light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are still moving lower and are now at mid-range. Still waiting for GDX to reach short term oversold before thinking about the calls there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are beginning to stall here as well. Still above the 50 day moving average. Ideal scenario here would be the VIX moves lower and stocks move higher to fill my SPY put order. But then again if the market moves to new all time highs and keeps going the puts are not the place to be. For now I'm sticking with trying the SPY October puts. Asia was somewhat lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

October begins with some selling as the Dow fell 173 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still in a sideways configuration. Middle East tension and a huge dock strike in the US was the background for today. Are we too late for the SPY October puts? Hopefully not. The NASDAQ led the way down and that is not a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 shed more than fifty points. The short term indicators there have turned down although they remain in overbought territory. I'm looking for some upside by Thursday but I could be wrong. Then there's the jobs report and market reaction on Friday to deal with. I am a believer that the SPY puts are the way to go here but now the premiums have moved up and they were already high with still over two weeks to go in the October option cycle. I'm going to be looking at probably buying some this week though. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped. It looks like the flight to safety trades were popular today. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was average. The short term indicators are now stalling for GDX so perhaps they won't make it back down to oversold. We'll see. I'll continue on the sidelines with regards to GDX for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX popped up today and at one point was above the 20 level. The short term indicators are moving higher and now imply more near term selling. This is why we may be too late on the index puts as the VIX is not going to wait around for us. It also closed back above its 50 day moving average. Never any easy trades in this game. Asia and Europe were mixed in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.