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Monday, September 09, 2024

Trying to bounce as the week begins and the Dow gained 484 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending down. The Dow barely led the way today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold but the indicators have turned up for now. I'm still considering the SPY September puts but want to see a move higher before purchase. Ideally a light volume move towards 555 on the SPY would build that case for those puts. Inflation data this Wednesday and Thursday should be mild. I will watch and wait for now. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up over 1 1/2, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold. I am thinking about perhaps getting the GDX September calls tomorrow ahead of the inflation data. The premiums are still pricey in my opinion. I'll consider things overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down with plenty of room to go lower. The VIX is back below 20. Not sure what to expect next here but a lower VIX and higher stock prices are not out of the question. That could fit with a move towards 555 on the SPY and set us up for the SPY puts for option expiration week. But we'll have to see what actually the market has in store for us. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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