Monday, September 30, 2024
It was a quiet session for much of the last day in September but volatility picked up in the final two hours. The Dow inched up by 17 points on good volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posting gains. The Fed chairman was giving a speech today and we'll blame the market movements on that. The overbought technical condition for the S&P remains the same. I'm convinced that the SPY October puts will be my next trade. The timing remains the question for now. Might see some beginning of the month money flows into stocks when October begins tomorrow. Fridays jobs report should be a market mover. Gold was off $15 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU dipped 3 1/2 and GDX lost over 1/2. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over and thay have room to go lower. GDX did finish up from the lows of the session though. I'm trying not to consider the GDX calls until it gets back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today which fits with an overall positive market at the close. The short term indicators are beginning to stall from their pop higher on Friday. Still short term oversold for the VIX but not completely so. If the VIX cooperates with our plans it will head lower as the market moves higher in the next few days so we can purchase the SPY October puts. Markets rarely cooperate with our best laid plans. Europe was lower and Asia mixed to start the week. China will be on holiday beginning tonight. We'll see how October starts out tomorrow.
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