Friday, September 06, 2024
More selling to end the short trading week as the Dow fell 410 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. Once again the NASDAQ has led the way down, off 2 1/2% today. That is not a plus. The jobs report came in about where expected as there were no surprises. But traders used it as an excuse to sell. The S&P 500 dropped below its 50 day moving average as it was down 95 points. The short term indicators here are oversold for the most part. I would expect some kind of bounce next week but it will probably be not more than that. That may give us a chance for the SPY September puts. Premiums for the puts are much higher now but I do not see a test of the recent all time highs anytime soon. I could be wrong. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar finished barely higher and interest rates were down slightly. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. The XAU dropped 4 points, while GDX lost a point. Volume was average. GDX is now short term oversold and I'm willing to give the September calls there a chance next week. I will probably put an order in on Sunday night but we'll see how things look after the weekend. This would have to be a short term trade because I think the overall market still has more room to go on the downside before option expiration. The gold shares have followed the overall market recently and that will probably remain the same. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with lower prices. Not yet completely overbought here but getting there. Still above the 20 level which implies more volatility to come. September is generally a negative month for stocks and so far it has lived up to that. There's still a couple of weeks to go in the September option cycle with inflation data and a Fed meeting yet to come. Hopefully I'll be up to the challenge. We'll check the charts over the weekend and be ready to go on Monday. Asia and Europe were lower overnight as players are heading for the exits. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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