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Friday, September 20, 2024

It was a pretty quiet Friday as the Dow was up 38 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The S&P 500 posted a small loss and remains short term overbought. Medium term overbought as well here. No overhead resistance for the S&P but I'm not sure how much further we have to the upside for now. All the good news seems to be out. The NASDAQ did not follow the Dow and S&P to new all time highs this week. The TRAN got clobbered today and that is not a positive going forward. So we'll have to wait and see how things unfold heading into the October option cycle. Gold continues to shine as the futures climbed $32 to a new all time high. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates a touch lower. The XAU added 2 1/3 and GDX was up 3/4. Volume was good. Above the 40 level now for GDX and that's a positive. I don't want to chase GDX here but it certainly has room to go higher. Short term overbought but not at extremes. The near term calls are pricey though as we are just moving into the October option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower marketplace. Short term oversold but not completely so on the short term indicators. I'm still not sure what's in store next for the VIX. Plenty of work to do over the weekend as I try and come up with a game plan going forward. The recent losing trade does not help on the confidence factor but it will be forgotten shortly. I'll be going over the charts as usual. Option premiums will be high rolling into a new cycle. I'm not completely sold on this rally but markets as always go where they want. Asia was higher and Europe lower to complete the trading week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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