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Tuesday, September 03, 2024

Stocks got clobbered to begin the month of September as the Dow fell 626 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led the way lower, off 3 1/4%. I was looking for the S&P 500 to set new all time highs this week but that appears to be the wrong prognosis. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over with plenty of room to move lower. Might be too late for the SPY September puts but we'll see. The bigger picture could be a double top on the S&P which would measure much much lower from todays levels. But we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Perhaps the bearish seasonality factor is kicking in. Looks like everybody returned to their desks ready to sell. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The gold shares followed the overall market down. The XAU lost 6 3/9 and GDX fell 1 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving down but not yet completely oversold. GDX did manage to finish above its 50 day moving average. I'm still considering the September calls here if and when GDX gets short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot higher today which fits the downside price action in stocks. It is now slightly above the important 20 level. The short term indicators are pointing up and most are not close to being overbought. We'll see if today was a one day wonder or the beginning of something sustainable to the downside as we move forward. I'm not sure exactly what to think here so caution on my part is advised. There's still plenty of time to trade in the September option cycle. The jobs report on Friday will be the highlight of the data out this week. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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