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Thursday, September 12, 2024

Inflation data came in where expected and the markets continued higher as the Dow gained 235 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ continues to lead that way higher and that's a positive. The S&P 500 continues to climb. Its short term indicators are moving up with room to go before hitting overbought. It really looks like new all time highs are coming up in the next few days. I might have to forget about trying the SPY September puts for that idea is at least on hold until next week. Yesterdays upside reversal looks like it was for real. Gold climbed $44 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares rallied with the XAU up 8 points and GDX gaining 1 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher with plenty of room to go. Another missed trade here as the option premiums never got down to what I was willing to pay for this opportunity. It's possible that GDX will run up into next weeks option expiration. They say that missed money is better than lost money but it never feels that way when you miss it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are moving down with room to go before hitting oversold. The VIX still implies higher prices in the near term. Six days to go in the September option cycle. Still time for a potential trade but the ideal time has passed on the GDX calls and the SPY put idea may have to fade away. If we continue higher into early next week the put trade might be possible on a sell the news event with the Fed on Wednesday. But that is a long way from here. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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