Friday, September 13, 2024
Still drifting higher as the Dow climbed 297 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. This will have the summation index moving back up. The Dow and the S&P 500 are on the cusp of new all time highs. We are getting a short term sell signal from one of our indicators but this hasn't been that reliable lately. It says any strength on Monday can be shorted. Perhaps I'll try the SPY September puts there but the breadth was very good today and the short etrm trend is obviously up. The short term indicators for the S&P are not yet overbought either. However I do not trust light volume rallies. I'll consider what to do over the weekend. Gold added another $30 on the futures as there is no overhead resistance. The US dollar was a little lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good as GDX hit a new recent high just above the 40 level. The short term indicators here are not yet overbought. I'm still thinking that the gold shares will run up into next weeks option expiration before taking a break. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up day for stocks. Still not short term oversold yet on the VIX. Plus it still implies higher prices for the market in the near term. Which makes trying the SPY September puts difficult. Not to mention with only a week to go in the September option cycle the timing of any trade next week has to be spot on. The Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are all right up against their near term overhead resistance. If it holds, the puts will be worth the effort. If it doesn't, new all time highs will be coming and who knows how much higher the market will go? So that is where we are at in a nutshell. I'll go over the charts this weekend to try and determine what to do. But I can tell you right now that you can make the case either way. Hopefully things will become clearer over the next couple of days of research. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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