Still drifting higher as the Dow climbed 297 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. This will have the summation index moving back up. The Dow and the S&P 500 are on the cusp of new all time highs. We are getting a short term sell signal from one of our indicators but this hasn't been that reliable lately. It says any strength on Monday can be shorted. Perhaps I'll try the SPY September puts there but the breadth was very good today and the short etrm trend is obviously up. The short term indicators for the S&P are not yet overbought either. However I do not trust light volume rallies. I'll consider what to do over the weekend. Gold added another $30 on the futures as there is no overhead resistance. The US dollar was a little lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX gained 7/8. Volume was good as GDX hit a new recent high just above the 40 level. The short term indicators here are not yet overbought. I'm still thinking that the gold shares will run up into next weeks option expiration before taking a break. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up day for stocks. Still not short term oversold yet on the VIX. Plus it still implies higher prices for the market in the near term. Which makes trying the SPY September puts difficult. Not to mention with only a week to go in the September option cycle the timing of any trade next week has to be spot on. The Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are all right up against their near term overhead resistance. If it holds, the puts will be worth the effort. If it doesn't, new all time highs will be coming and who knows how much higher the market will go? So that is where we are at in a nutshell. I'll go over the charts this weekend to try and determine what to do. But I can tell you right now that you can make the case either way. Hopefully things will become clearer over the next couple of days of research. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Inflation data came in where expected and the markets continued higher as the Dow gained 235 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ continues to lead that way higher and that's a positive. The S&P 500 continues to climb. Its short term indicators are moving up with room to go before hitting overbought. It really looks like new all time highs are coming up in the next few days. I might have to forget about trying the SPY September puts for that idea is at least on hold until next week. Yesterdays upside reversal looks like it was for real. Gold climbed $44 on the futures to a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares rallied with the XAU up 8 points and GDX gaining 1 3/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher with plenty of room to go. Another missed trade here as the option premiums never got down to what I was willing to pay for this opportunity. It's possible that GDX will run up into next weeks option expiration. They say that missed money is better than lost money but it never feels that way when you miss it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are moving down with room to go before hitting oversold. The VIX still implies higher prices in the near term. Six days to go in the September option cycle. Still time for a potential trade but the ideal time has passed on the GDX calls and the SPY put idea may have to fade away. If we continue higher into early next week the put trade might be possible on a sell the news event with the Fed on Wednesday. But that is a long way from here. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We saw an incredible one day upside reversal today as the market opened and dropped lower only to turn around and finish decidedly higher on the session. The Dow, which was off over 700 points early, made it all the way back and finished with a gain of 124 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to trend sideways. The inflation data came in where expected but stocks sold off hard early on. The comeback was led by the NASDAQ which added over 2% for the day. The S&P 500 finished up almost sixty points after being down around ninety. The short term indicators there are now at mid-range or above. My SPY September put idea will have to be put on hold for now. We now have to ask if new all time highs are back in the picture. One day does not make a trend but it was pretty impressive. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished a little higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX rose a bit over 1/8. Volume was light as the gold shares did not follow the overall markets good gains. The short term indicators here have turned up. I'll try the calls here if they roll back over and the premium is what I'm willing to pay. Running out of time now in the September option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower but remains above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are now below mid-range and pointing lower. This implies more near term gains for stocks. Perhaps the inflation data tomorrow will be benign as well. Asia and Europe were generally lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The overall market was higher but the Dow posted a loss of 92 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving down. The NASDAQ outperformed today and that is a plus. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators are moving up from oversold levels. As long as we continue higher on light volume, I'm still looking at the SPY September puts. Perhaps later this week if the market cooperates. It is entirely possible that we just move higher from here as well but I'm not as sure on that scenario. We'll see what the reaction is to the inflation data and go from there. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU was up a couple points and GDX added almsot 1/2. Volume was light. I did not get any GDX calls today as the premium on the option that I was considering did not drop to the price that I wanted. GDX remains short term oversold on some of the indicators and is right at its 50 day moving average. It may have been a mistake on my part in not getting the calls today but we'll see how it plays out going forward. I think that I'm more sold on the SPY put idea for this option cycle but we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with the overall market rise. The short term indicators are now mid-range and give the appearance that they could go either way. I'm pretty sure we will see some kind of movement tomorrow morning after the inflation report. Which way is always the question. The data is forecast to be mild. There is also a presidential debate tonight but I don't know how much that will affect the markets. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Trying to bounce as the week begins and the Dow gained 484 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending down. The Dow barely led the way today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 is still short term oversold but the indicators have turned up for now. I'm still considering the SPY September puts but want to see a move higher before purchase. Ideally a light volume move towards 555 on the SPY would build that case for those puts. Inflation data this Wednesday and Thursday should be mild. I will watch and wait for now. Gold was up $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up over 1 1/2, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. GDX remains short term oversold. I am thinking about perhaps getting the GDX September calls tomorrow ahead of the inflation data. The premiums are still pricey in my opinion. I'll consider things overnight. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have turned down with plenty of room to go lower. The VIX is back below 20. Not sure what to expect next here but a lower VIX and higher stock prices are not out of the question. That could fit with a move towards 555 on the SPY and set us up for the SPY puts for option expiration week. But we'll have to see what actually the market has in store for us. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of India overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

More selling to end the short trading week as the Dow fell 410 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving lower. Once again the NASDAQ has led the way down, off 2 1/2% today. That is not a plus. The jobs report came in about where expected as there were no surprises. But traders used it as an excuse to sell. The S&P 500 dropped below its 50 day moving average as it was down 95 points. The short term indicators here are oversold for the most part. I would expect some kind of bounce next week but it will probably be not more than that. That may give us a chance for the SPY September puts. Premiums for the puts are much higher now but I do not see a test of the recent all time highs anytime soon. I could be wrong. Gold was off $17 on the futures. The US dollar finished barely higher and interest rates were down slightly. The gold shares followed the overall market lower. The XAU dropped 4 points, while GDX lost a point. Volume was average. GDX is now short term oversold and I'm willing to give the September calls there a chance next week. I will probably put an order in on Sunday night but we'll see how things look after the weekend. This would have to be a short term trade because I think the overall market still has more room to go on the downside before option expiration. The gold shares have followed the overall market recently and that will probably remain the same. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and that fits with lower prices. Not yet completely overbought here but getting there. Still above the 20 level which implies more volatility to come. September is generally a negative month for stocks and so far it has lived up to that. There's still a couple of weeks to go in the September option cycle with inflation data and a Fed meeting yet to come. Hopefully I'll be up to the challenge. We'll check the charts over the weekend and be ready to go on Monday. Asia and Europe were lower overnight as players are heading for the exits. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Generally lower today although the NASDAQ managed to post a small gain. The Dow fell 219 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The S&P 500 was down and closed on its 50 day moving average. Getting to short term oversold here but not all the way there yet. Just waiting on the reaction to tomorrows jobs report at this point. Not sure what to expect there. Still waiting on some kind of signal or set up for the next SPY option trade. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU gained 1 1/4, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was light. GDX is short term oversold on some of the indicators. I'll be looking to maybe attempt the September calls there if we continue lower into next week. There hasn't been much interest in the gold shares lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit with a down market. Some of the short term indicators here are rolling over. Barely below the 20 level after today. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Still two weeks left in the September option cycle and I hope to put on some type of trade in that time span. Can't force things though as markets go where they want. We'll see what transpires tomorrow and go from there. Asia and Europe were lower in last nights trade. We'll close out the week on employment report Friday.

It was a day of stabilization as the Dow rose 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending sideways. A back and forth seesion for the most part as volatility cooled off for a day. The overall market was slightly weaker. The S&P 500 was a bit lower but remains above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are still pointing down. Not sure what to expect tomorrow ahead of the jobs report on Friday but I would not expect a lot of buying unless a short squeeze takes place. The daily candlestick chart here looks bearish. Gold finished flat on the day. The US dollar was lower and interest rates dipped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX remains at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are not yet at oversold levels. Staying patient for now when it comes to the GDX September calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today and remains above the 20 level. The picture of the daily candlestick chart here implies that the VIX will move lower from here. We'll see if that happens. Europe and Asia were lower with Japan leading the way. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Stocks got clobbered to begin the month of September as the Dow fell 626 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ led the way lower, off 3 1/4%. I was looking for the S&P 500 to set new all time highs this week but that appears to be the wrong prognosis. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over with plenty of room to move lower. Might be too late for the SPY September puts but we'll see. The bigger picture could be a double top on the S&P which would measure much much lower from todays levels. But we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Perhaps the bearish seasonality factor is kicking in. Looks like everybody returned to their desks ready to sell. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dropped. The gold shares followed the overall market down. The XAU lost 6 3/9 and GDX fell 1 1/3. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving down but not yet completely oversold. GDX did manage to finish above its 50 day moving average. I'm still considering the September calls here if and when GDX gets short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX shot higher today which fits the downside price action in stocks. It is now slightly above the important 20 level. The short term indicators are pointing up and most are not close to being overbought. We'll see if today was a one day wonder or the beginning of something sustainable to the downside as we move forward. I'm not sure exactly what to think here so caution on my part is advised. There's still plenty of time to trade in the September option cycle. The jobs report on Friday will be the highlight of the data out this week. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.