It was a good week for the bulls as we had another up day on Friday. The Dow closed higher by 59 points on summer light volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. My order for the OEX puts was filled. It's already in the red as the timing was a bit early. However light volume rallies are not to be trusted, so we'll see how it goes. We are at the resistance level that I had in mind , so some type of pullback is expected in my estimation. But I could be wrong. Perhaps we'll just continue higher for option expiration week. The stop loss order is in. Gold had a good day, up $14. The XAU rose 4 1/4. ABX and GG were up a buck and NEM tacked on 1 1/2. The volume was light however and these issues were higher earlier. I still may try the August ABX calls before the earnings announcement at the end of this month. I'll have to ponder this over the weekend. The dollar was up a touch today and hasn't been moving much in the past few days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we're a bit overbought now and the Dow is at its down trend line from the beginning of May. Grounds for a pullback in my opinion. But anything can and will happen. The summation index has turned around and is moving to the upside. So there are some crosscurrents out there. I don't see any major events moving gold one way or the other in the near term as well. We could enter the summer doldrums period, which would not help the OEX put trade. Volatility has disappeared this week as well. So we'll see what happens over the weekend and take it from there. It's summertime, Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow continued higher today, up 120 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index should be turning higher. The market opened higher, traded lower later in the day and then came back in the final hour. Perhaps the decline has ended. However I still have an open order for the OEX July puts. We're not overbought yet but getting there. The S&P 500 is 5 points away from what I consider resistance at 1075. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold lost $3 today and the XAU shed 2 1/4. ABX was down over a buck and a quarter on good volume. GG dropped 34 and NEM was actually up 1/3. Both on light volume. I canceled the open order for ABX August calls. I still may do that trade but not right now. Mentally I'm very tired at the moment. I'm going to check on a few more things here tonight and then determine if I still want to try the OEX puts. It's been a long day and I need some rest.

Today we got the long awaited oversold bounce as the Dow gained 275 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. So now what? That is the question. I put in an order for some OEX puts which I will leave in overnight. I think we can go a bit higher here in the near term but I do not expect some type of straight up rally. As usual I could be wrong. We are at 1060 on the S&P 500 and I think there's a lid at 1075. We'll see. In downtrends you get these one day short covering rallies that then peter out. Time will tell. Gold came back today too, up $4 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 4 3/4. ABX and GG were both up around 3/4 or so and NEM led the way by 1 1/4. Volume was light. The dollar lost a touch. ABX is bouncing off of it's daily trend line that has held since February. I still have an order in for the August ABX calls but it won't be filled if we rally from here. I'll have to reconsider this idea tonight. Perhaps now is the time to just purchase some August gold share calls. We are in a seasonal weak period for gold though. However I expect the earnings to be good at the end of this month for ABX. Things to ponder. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So where do we go from here? Could the market be sold out right now? Always plenty of questions with no clear answers in this game. Will the summation index turn around here? I'm still a believer that this rally today won't last long. Another possibility is that we enter a sideways light volume summer doldrums period. That scenario will not be conducive to outright option positions. So there's a lot to think about tonight. Tomorrows blog will be later in the day as I am taking a half day off to get out of town for a while.

We got somewhat of a bounce today as the Dow gained 57 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We gapped higher at the open and were up 170 points early. Gave it all back and then some but rallied into the close. So the volatility remains. I'm still considering the July OEX puts if we get some upside. But things remain uncertain. We're still oversold and haven't relieved that condition. So we'll see what happens. Not a lot of data out this week and it is summer. Gold dropped around $15 today and the XAU fell 1 1/3. ABX GG and NEM all had fractional losses on summertime average volume. GG led the way. I still have the August ABX call order in but we are right at the multi week uptrend line and if that is broken I may have to cancel. We are oversold on the gold shares though and the Gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone. However the dollar was weaker today as well and that may mean that the flight to safety trade is being unwound. That's a guess as usual. Mentally I'm feeling OK after the long holiday weekend. 8 days remain in the July option cycle. Nothing imminent on the radar at the moment. It won't hurt to be patient here either. So I'll stay on the sidelines and see what the market brings.

The market tried to get into positive territory but failed at the close. The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The jobs report was weak and that was expected. The market is so oversold it is hard to believe that it hasn't yet rallied hard for a day or crashed. The technicals are not acting as they should. The prudent thing to do would be to step aside in my opinion. I'm on the sidelines as far as the indices go but that will change. I'd like to short any bounce we get but then, so does everyone else. Gold was up a touch on the futures and in the aftermarket. The XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. I'm leaving in my August ABX call ticket. I'll rethink things over the weekend. The dollar was lower today. I think that the gold earnings will be stellar at the end of this month and would like to be long something by then. But that's a guess and subject to change of course. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. So it was a down week to be sure and we are still oversold. Hard to figure out why there hasn't been some kind of bounce. If the market is really that weak, I would expect a violent down day. Hasn't happened. So on we go. Volatility has decreased in the past couple of days but we are still moving lower. That's another puzzle to try and figure out. Long holiday weekend and a short 4 day week coming up. 9 days left for the July options. I'm leaning towards the OEX puts if we ever get a bounce. But it's risky. There has to be some massive short covering at some point doesn't there? Who knows? Maybe we will simply grind down all the way to the July expiration. At any rate, there is a lot to think about for the next 3 days. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to have a positive day but it was not to be as the Dow lost 41 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are very oversold here and really due for some type of short-covering bounce. But we've been oversold for a while. The Dow was down 150 at one point. We've got the employment report tomorrow ahead of a long weekend. Anything can happen. We are in a down trend. Rallies will be sold. Gold got clobbered today, down about $40 on the futures. The XAU fell 7 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all were over 2 point losers on good volume. I canceled the ABX July call order. I placed another order for ABX calls going out to August. I'm not sure if today was a one day wonder for gold or the start of something bigger. The dollar got clobbered as well so the flight to safety trade was taken off in a big way. Perhaps the markets here sense a rally about to happen for the indices. Hard to believe that though. Maybe traders were trying to lock in some 2nd half of the year profits on the first day. It's all a guess but you cannot ignore the price action. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. The summation index continues lower, we are in dangerous territory and the market cannot seem to get even one day of rally. Interesting times indeed. Who knows what tomorrows employment numbers will look like? I'm on the sidelines as far as the stock indices are concerned for the moment. So we'll see what tomorrow brings.

A weak attempt at a bounce and then the Dow lost 96 points to close out the month of June. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower, oversold and staying there. This is a dangerous market right now. We are possibly going to go through the zero line on the summation index. We haven't even had a short covering rally. I think that you can by puts on a bounce when we get one. But what do I know? Gold was up $3 today and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light to average volume. The gold shares are showing good relative strength. Almost at a buy signal for the Gold/XAU ratio. I placed an order for some July ABX calls in case we have a big drop in the markets in the next couple of days. However getting long anything is very risky in this market at the moment. So we'll see what happens. The dollar was a bit lower today as the flight to quality trade took a day off. Mentally I'm feeling somewhat tired, did not feel well last night. I closed out the first half of the year on a down note and that was the story generally for 2010 so far. Plenty of time left in the year to turn things around. All eyes are waiting for the employment report on Friday. Perhaps we'll get a short covering rally in the next couple of days. If we don't, it could get very ugly and fast.

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 268 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. We never got the bounce that was overdue and I dumped the OEX calls for about an 80% loss. The summation index is now heading lower and the market could easily fall apart here. The bellwethers have already broken down and the S&P 500 should take out 1040 and head lower. That doesn't mean that we won't bounce tomorrow because we are so oversold. It does mean that we are headed lower and caution is advised. I thought we would move sideways into the July expiration but I was wrong again. 9800 is the key level for the Dow. Once we break that, we are heading much lower. GE lost 1/2 on heavy volume. No trades there. Gold held up rather well and gained $3. The XAU followed the overall market and was down over 5. ABX lost a buck or so, GG down 1 1/2, with NEM off 1/3. Volume was average. I guess I'm going to look at the gold shares here again. The dollar was stronger today and it could be that the safe haven plays come back in vogue for the July expiration cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost back to a buy signal. I'll look things over tonight. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So I closed out another loss for the 1st half of the year, which doesn't help my confidence going forward. But it will be forgotten because the markets don't care. I think that we are in a precarious position and I would not be surprised by anything at this point. When the markets don't act as they should technically, we're in for something. The best course of action here could just be to step aside. That's a possibility. End of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend. It will be interesting to say the least.

We still can't generate a rally as the Dow lost 5 points today. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. My OEX calls are in the red and staying there. I really expect a big upside day tomorrow. If we don't get one, I really will be confused. But that is nothing new. The market is oversold both short and medium term. It should have showed some type of upside by now. So we'll see. I don't think that the OEX calls will be coming back into the black. GE barely moved on light volume. Nothing doing there. Gold took a hit, off $17. The XAU dropped 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on what looks like average volume. The dollar was stronger today. No gold share trades for now. Overbought and staying there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days left for the month of June. The market seems extremely weak here and the weekly candlestick charts are bearish. If we get a pop to the upside I will dump the OEX calls and perhaps try the OEX puts again before Fridays employment report. Or not. We should see some decent upside in the indices tomorrow. Stay tuned.

The Dow lost 9 points today as we continue to remain oversold. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good. Hard to figure what is going on here because we should have had a decent upside day by now. My OEX calls are solidly in the red and it looks like this will be a cut the loss trade. The bellwethers on GE, INTC and MSFT all continued lower today on good volume. The OEX will not get any upside traction with action like that. Gold was higher today by $10 and the XAU rose 6 1/2 points. ABX was up 1 3/4, GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up 2 3/4. Volume was average. Money continues to flow into the gold shares. Perhaps I should have been looking here. Overbought now so getting the July calls is risky. But you cannot ignore that there are buyers for gold, even at record levels. I will have to ponder this over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So we're oversold and not getting a bounce. What does that mean going forward? That is the question. I do feel that we will get some real upside in the next couple of days. Technically that has to happen. If it doesn't we could be in for some real trouble. We might be in trouble anyway, down the road. End of the month coming up in the middle of next week. The employment report comes out on Friday before a long weekend. So there will be plenty to ponder over the next couple of days. It's time for a break.

Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 145 points today. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The OEX calls I have are in the red. Todays developments have me questioning whether or not this trade will work. The summation index will be turning back down after todays action. Perhaps just sticking with the puts is the proper course of action. I expect some type of bounce here but now I suspect it will not be a sustained move higher. So we'll see. GE lost more ground today on increased volume. No time for buying calls there now. They are certainly cheap but maybe headed to zero. Gold was up over $10 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all off fractionally after being higher early. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. No solid idea of what to do here with respect to the gold shares except stay on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So I'm in a trade that doesn't look good now but there is plenty of time and we are oversold. I originally wanted to hold it for 4 days and I'm going to stick with that. However the market isn't acting well here and that must be taken into consideration going forward. Volatility has picked up which will help keep the option premiums juiced. We'll see how we close out the week.

A day of indecision as the Dow gained 5 points on light to average volume. Advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Fed announcement came and went with no surprises. We were up over 50 and down over 50. I sold the OEX puts for about a 50% profit. We are now back to short term oversold. I bought some July OEX calls as I expect some upside for the next 4 days. So it's out of one trade and into another this time around. The calls usually take longer to develop a profit unless we see a dramatic move to the upside. I don't expect that. GE was down again on heavier volume and that is worrisome. The July GE calls are cheap now but I decided to go with the OEX. That could change tomorrow. Gold was down $6 but the XAU was up 1/2. The gold issues were mixed, with ABX flat, GG up 3/4 and NEM off 3/8. Volume was light. The gold shares did mount somewhat of a comeback from earlier in the day. The dollar was weaker today. I don't have any gold trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling tired, haven't slept enough the past couple of days. That will change tonight. Feeling good about the trade closed out today, finally did something right for a change. But that trade is over and now my attention will be on the OEX July calls. The fact that the market sold off today and did not close on it's low could be a positive going forward. The transports held up after falling early as well. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

To the downside as the Dow lost 149 points today. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. My OEX puts are in the black but we are now short term oversold. I did not sell them today because the down trend was strong. Also the transports were really weak and can be a harbinger of things to come. But I should dump them tomorrow if my brain is working. We have the Fed announcement on interest rates tomorrow. I don't expect anything new there and neither does anyone else. GE lost 30 cents today on light volume. Not exactly sure I want to try the calls there now. The daily chart doesn't look bullish. Gold was flat today but the XAU followed the overall market lower, down 1 7/8. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG lost 3/8. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm a little tired, did not sleep enough. So we've seen some weakness and the OEX puts are showing a profit. Monday morning would have been the correct time to purchase them but that is hindsight. However it does remind you that overnight risk cannot be taken lightly. In that case it was over the weekend risk. However I have to go from here. The puts should be sold tomorrow and then we'll see where we go from there.

A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow was up around 140 points early but ended the day with a loss of 8 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light to average. I still have the OEX puts that I bought on Friday. If we would have opened lower I would have dumped them but that was not the case. I should get rid of them tomorrow on any weakness. I don't think that this is the beginning of a sustained down move but what do I know? The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The OEX puts are about break even. Today would have been the ideal purchase date. GE was up fractionally on light volume. I still may try the July calls there if the price drops to my level. We'll see about that. Gold fell $17 and even more in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 4 points. ABX and GG were down about 1 1/2, while NEM lost 1 3/4. Volume was average. Is this time to try the gold shares? Not after todays action. Perhaps if we make it back to the rising daily trend line on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility returned today but I have to wonder, is it just a one day affair? Could be, because we will move to short term oversold tomorrow with a simply flat market. However the action today was bearish. But this also could have just been a reaction to the expiration on Friday. So as usual there are lots of questions without a lot of solid answers. I should sell the OEX puts tomorrow unless we completely collapse and I doubt that is in the cards.

We ended the week on a whimper as the Dow gained 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Overbought now and I got some OEX July puts today for what I believe to be a 2 day trade. In on Friday and out on Monday if all goes according to plan. The puts are right where I bought them. I expect weakness Monday. So we'll see what happens. I canceled the GE call trade because I did not want to hold it over the weekend. Might try it again next week. GE was flat today on light volume. Gold broke out to new highs today, up $10. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX and NEM both gained 1 1/2 on good volume. GG was up a buck on light volume. NEM has been the leader and is breaking out to the upside. I need to find a way to get long the gold shares. I may have to wait for a pullback to the breakout line though. It is dangerous to chase moves. The gold shares had a great move this week considering it was expiration week. A lot of money was made. Perhaps that will happen again in the future. I'd like to be on board when it does. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So I've got the OEX puts for July and I expect to sell them on Monday for a profit. Volatility has slowed down so far in June and that could be the case going forward for the summer. It happens and is known as the summer doldrums. We'll see. It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. The summation index continues higher, so the trend is up. That is why this OEX put trade has got to be short term.

We were lower for most of the day but a late last half hour rally carried the Dow to a gain of 24 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. I continued to have an order in for some OEX puts but it looks like it won't be filled. There's only one day left for the June options as it is. If I could get the price I wanted, I would do it. But it is not going to happen. We should be lower tomorrow or Monday. Short term overbought here. GE was up a few cents and I'm leaving in the July call order there. Volume was light. I'll need to have a pullback there for that trade to be filled. Gold is the place to be this week as it gained almost $20 on the day. The XAU rose 3 2/3. ABX gained 1 2/3, GG about a buck and NEM 1 1/3. Volume was average but a bit heavier in NEM. The dollar was lower today. NEM is leading the way higher here and looks to break out above $60. ABX did meet it's rising uptrend line from February earlier this week. That was the time to try the calls. I was instead focused on the OEX. Perhaps gold is ready to break out to new highs here. I'll have to consider this scenario going forward. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated. Timing a day off, watching the wrong index, a losing trade during the week. There are many opportunities in the markets but doing the right thing at the right time eludes me once again. The money to be made is out there. Doing what is necessary to be successful isn't impossible. It hasn't been a good first half of the year trading for me. I'll have to improve over the next 6 months.

It was an up and down day as the Dow gained 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. 2 days left in the June option cycle and I'm leaving in an open order for some OEX puts. It's a risky trade with 2 days left but I do think that there will be some decent downside before Fridays expiration. If we get some upside early tomorrow there is a chance the order will be filled. Of course I could be wrong and this will just be another losing trade. We'll see. GE was up a few cents on average volume. I'm still leaving in the open order there for the July calls. Gold lost a few bucks today but the XAU was up 1 3/4. NEM led the way with a 2 dollar gain on good volume. ABX and GG were up fractionally on light volume. The dollar didn't do much today. The gold shares are looking overbought to me here but that doesn't mean that they can't stay that way for a while. I'm not planning any trades here in the near term but that could change. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Yesterdays losing trade is in the rear view mirror and I'll see if this next OEX trade will work. With 2 days left I do wonder if it is even worth the risk? That is something that I will ponder tonight. Perhaps I'll simply cancel the order tomorrow morning and look for greener pastures elsewhere. The trend is now up and July calls look to be the best play going forward post expiration.

The Dow exploded to the upside today as it gained 214 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. I tried the OEX puts halfway through the day. Yes, it was a loser and I dumped them in the final hour. It was a 40% loss but not a lot of money involved, thankfully. The risk is high in the last week of the options as I have said. I was simply wrong on the timing and got out. I still believe that there will be a decent downside day this week. With that thought in mind I am leaving in an overnight order for some OEX puts again. We are short term overbought. GE was up about 40 cents on light volume. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE July calls. Gold was higher by $10 and the XAU gained 4 1/3. ABX and GG were up almost a buck, while NEM rose 1 1/3. Volume was light. The dollar was weaker today as the flight to safety there is taking a break. The daily uptrend line for ABX has held once again. That looks like the trade that should have been done. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not feel well this morning. So I tried the OEX puts today when I shouldn't have and I'm going to try them again. The summation index is heading higher so the path of least resistance is actually higher according to this indicator. Maybe I'm just wrong in my assessment of Junes expiration week. Perhaps just waiting on the GE trade to be filled is the better course of action. I'll consider these things tonight and take it from there.

We opened higher and closed lower, which usually isn't a bullish sign. The Dow lost 20 points on light volume. The advance/declines were solidly positive though. Today looks like it was the day to try the OEX puts. I did not get any. We broke through the daily downtrend line on some indices but the volume was light. I still might try the OEX puts if things line up to do it later this week. However with only 4 days in the June option cycle the risk will be very high. I still have an open order in for the GE July calls. GE was down a bit today on light volume. My thinking here is that we will build a small base and that process is happening now. From there we will rally and then I can dump the calls at a profit. Could be wishful thinking as well. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 2 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all fell over a buck on light volume. ABX is at it's rising trend line and it's 50-day moving average. It's possible that the line will hold and the June calls can be bought here for a quick trade. It's also possible that the rising trend line will be broken and the rally from February is over. But we are at the moment of truth. Still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. So I'll have to think about that one tonight as well. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. It's expiration week and I do have a couple of ideas. Might be too late for the OEX puts though. The safer trade to do would be to go out to July with the GE call trade. So we'll see. Time will be compressed with just 4 days to go here in the June cycle. Timing will be even more important and it will have to be close to exact. A tough order in the markets. So I'll mull things over and decide which path, if any, to choose.

We traded lower for most of the day and then rallied in the final hour for a gain of 38 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The volume was light though. We are starting to break through the daily downtrend line on the S&P 500 but the volume will need to pick up. If we continue with a light volume rally here then I will be looking to get some OEX puts next week. GE had a fractional loss on light volume and I'm leaving in the open order for the July calls. I'm going to reevaluate this trade over the weekend. Perhaps there just isn't enough volatility or price movement in GE to warrant the risk of the trade. We'll see. Gold rose $8 today, while the XAU was up 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. Here is a case where the interest could wane for the gold shares unless there is some global instability. The dollar was up a bit today but it too is overbought and due for a rest or a pullback. Normally that would be supportive for gold, however these haven't been normal times. If the flight to safety trade loses popularity, then gold will fall. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It really looks like the market wants to hold up here and that would tie in with the summation index turning around. I'm not saying that there's going to be some rip roaring rally but at least the decline in the indices should stop for a while. I'm still calling for sideways to higher for at least a month or so. But as always that's a guess and subject to revision going forward. I'm going to have to go over the charts this weekend and have a plan of attack ready for next week. It will be option expiration week so anything can and will happen. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

I think we can say that the decline in the stock indices is over for now as the Dow gained 273 points today. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The summation index should start moving higher here. That's not to say that there won't be some down days going forward, there will. But I think the trend is going to be sideways to higher here for the next month or so. I look for another drop in the autumn and that should be a good longer term buying opportunity. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE July calls in case we get a drop in the coming days. GE was up 1/3 today on light to average volume. Gold fell $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 2 1/2, following the overall market. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar fell pretty good today but it did not help the price of the precious metal. Perhaps the flight to safety trade is losing steam here with the stability in the stock indices. I canceled the June ABX call trade. I think that I will have to wait on the gold shares. Mentally I'm doing OK. We are right at the daily downtrend line in the stock indices. It looks like we will break through to the upside. If we continue higher I may attempt the OEX puts before expiration. We will have to get short term overbought and we are not there yet. I also think there is a chance that the volatility will slow down as we begin the summer. That will make the trading a lot tougher. But that's a guess. Let's see how we close the week tomorrow.

Opened higher and closed lower as the Dow lost 40 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. Hard to say what will happen next as we move sideways attempting to hold around the important 1060 level on the S&P 500. I still have an open order for some GE July calls. My thinking is that we will hold up here but that could all change tomorrow. Oversold on the daily charts of the indices. However the summation index continues lower and we haven't seen a selling washout that usually accompanies a bottom. Gold lost $15 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU fell over 2 points. ABX and GG fell about 5/8. NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was light to average. I placed an open order for some ABX June calls. ABX would have to have a pretty good drop for this order to be filled. The daily chart isn't looking exactly bullish but if we get to the 50 day moving average line on a pullback, then I'm willing to take the risk. The dollar fell a bit today. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there. That's the feeling that I get. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. Only a couple of days left in the week and who will be buying stocks in this atmosphere? So I have a couple of open orders out and we'll see what happens.

We bounced around a bit and closed higher on the day as the Dow gained 123 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up from yesterday. Could the decline be over? Perhaps. We have not exactly fallen apart here and technically we have every reason to. So maybe the sideways to upside action that I expect is going to begin now. That's a guess and it could all change tomorrow. However I did put in an order for some July GE calls. Yes, GE doesn't move around as much as the overall market as I've said before. But I'm going to give it a shot and see what happens. We're oversold on GE and today could have been the bottom with a hammer candlestick on the daily chart. We'll see. Gold was up a bit on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX and GG were only up fractionally after being much higher earlier. NEM gained 1 1/4. It was also higher early. Volume was heavy. It looked like almost a one day reversal to the downside for ABX. I canceled my open order for the June ABX calls. However there is still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But the daily ABX candlestick chart doesn't look so good at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the calls again if we get to the 50 day moving average line. But again, it could all change tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So these are interesting times no doubt. We should see some positive action in the overseas markets tonight and that should carry through to a positive open tomorrow in the US. In theory at least. 8 days left for the June options. Risky but I may still attempt something there.

The market tried to hold on all day but couldn't as the Dow lost 115 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 closed below the 1060 level. We have crossed the zero line in the summation index. There are no compelling reasons to buy stocks here. In my mind it is a question of just how low are we going to go here. It will be interesting to say the least. We could really start to fall apart. Gold saw safe haven buying as it rose over $20 and is knocking on the door to a new all time high. The XAU was up over 3 points. ABX gained 1 3/4, GG was higher by almost 2 and NEM rose 1 1/2. Volume was average. I placed an early order for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm still a believer here though and am leaving in an overnight order for the ABX calls at a higher strike price. The Gold/XAU ratio remains on a buy signal even with the positive action today. I don't like to chase things but I'll make an exception this time. Of course it could just blow up in my face with less than 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle. Not to mention the possibility of a market free fall here that will take the gold shares with it. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Looked over everything this weekend and decided that the gold shares were the place to attempt a trade. Might be too late, time will tell. Looking over the stock indices, I think that this will be the drop that will complete a 5 wave pattern to the downside from the April highs. That's what it appears to me. It will set up for some type of sideways or upwards trend for the beginning of the summer before we head lower again. That's my guess at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I had thought that perhaps we would break through the daily downtrend line on the major indices. Wrong again. The Dow lost 324 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. The summation index will be heading back down after today. Am I sorry that I wasn't filled on the OEX puts yesterday? Of course but there is nothing I can do about it today. Next week should be interesting. We are in dangerous territory technically so stay tuned. Gold held up today gaining $7. The XAU fell 4 points though. ABX and GG were both off 7/8, while NEM fell 5/8. Volume was average. The Gold/XAU ratio is still on a buy signal. My thinking at the moment is to purchase some gold shares calls on the downside follow through on Monday if there is any. Gold is holding up rather well considering the upside in the dollar. The dollar had another strong day today. Gold is not paying attention. I'll consider things more over the weekend. Mentally I'm still quite tired. I need some rest to clear my thoughts. The problems overseas and with the euro are affecting the indices here in the US. That uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon. We are at the 1060 level in the S&P 500 again and that is key. Monday morning will be interesting. I will need to be ready. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to get prepared. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We were up and we were down with the Dow finally ending up with a 5 point gain. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was average. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The McClellan oscillator moved back into positive territory and the summation index moved higher for the first time in weeks. I did have an order in for some OEX puts today but it wasn't filled. We never did get all the way back to the daily down trend line. Perhaps we will with the reaction to tomorrows employment report. Maybe even break through to the upside. But that's a guess as usual. Gold fell $12 today and the XAU fell 3 3/4. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost a buck and NEM shed 1 3/8. Volume was light. The dollar was up on the day. I still may consider getting long the gold shares for the June option cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio remains near the buy signal. But there isn't a solid technical reason so I'm holding off for now. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep enough. Tomorrow probably will be an important day. We are close enough to the daily down trend line on the major indices that it very well may be broken to the upside. We also could fail here and head back down. The reaction or lack of to the employment report should be the catalyst. GE hasn't really moved much lately and I'm not thinking of trying a trade there again at the moment. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and if there is a trade there for me.

Back to the upside with a vengeance as the Dow gained 225 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The market is trying to hold on and it looks like it should succeed. But tomorrow is another day as we move back and forth here. We haven't made it to the down trend line yet but could tomorrow. I'm still leaning towards getting the OEX puts if and when that happens. However if we bust through the line on good volume, we'll know that the decline is over. Hasn't happened yet but it looks like it will based on todays action. Employment news on Friday. Gold lost $4 but the XAU was up 4 points following the overall market. ABX was up 1/2 while GG and NEM tacked on about a buck apiece. Volume looked a bit light there. You can't argue with price though. The Gold/XAU ration flashed another buy signal at the beginning of this shortened week. The dollar was up a touch today after being higher early. The gold shares continue to move higher but the volume has been light. No trades there for now. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. We should get some upside follow through tomorrow. I believe that I'll try to get some OEX puts if we reach 503 on that index. That is the level where the down trend line comes into play. That's the game plan at the moment.

We started the week and the month to the downside as the Dow lost 112 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I am waiting for a snap back to the downtrend line in the OEX but it isn't happening. It has the feel again that we are just going to collapse. We are in the technical territory that I explained before that it could happen. I hope it doesn't but anything could happen here. The OEX puts a very expensive so I didn't get any. I'd like to own some before Fridays employment report but it doesn't look like that will happen at this point. Gold was up $8 on the futures but the XAU fell a point. ABX up 1/2, GG up 1/8 and NEM up 7/8. All were higher earlier in the day but fell with the overall market. Volume was good. If we do get a collapse in the stock market, I'll look to pick up some gold share calls. The metal itself has held up pretty good with the stock market volatility. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good, slept well. So we are at the moment of truth again for the stock market. Will it hold up here? A solid break of the 1060 level on the S&P 500 with a close below that level will spell big trouble in my opinion. But I've been wrong before as readers of the blog are aware. So we'll see how it plays out. Summation index heading lower with todays action and about the cross the zero line. Dangerous times again in my opinion. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We bounced around lower for most of the day to end the month. The Dow lost 122 points and most of that was in the last 15 minutes. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. No follow through to yesterdays positive action. I'm still leaning towards trying the OEX puts if we make it back to the down trend line. But who knows? Maybe we will collapse before that happens. Or maybe the decline is over and we start a bit of a rally. No clear technical signals here. So it's even more of a guessing game than usual. Gold was basically flat again and the XAU fell 1 2/3. ABX off 1/3, GG down 1/4 and NEM led the way negative by over a buck. Volume was light. The dollar was stronger today. I have no solid idea of what to do with the gold shares at the moment. Almost back at a Gold/XAU buy signal. Gold has held up very good considering the damage done to the stock indices of late. But where we go from here is a mystery to me for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. There are a lot of crosscurrents in the markets at the moment. Volatility has returned in a big way. A long holiday weekend is upon us. There will be plenty of time to go over the various charts and try to figure out what to do. There is a lot of uncertainty and the markets never react well to that. So I'll check things out over the next 3 days and go from there. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We got a bounce today and in a big way as the Dow gained 284 points. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive and the volume was average. There will be no crash for now. The summation index looks like it will hold near the zero line. Unless we do a complete turnaround tomorrow and I doubt it, we should hold in here for a while. That doesn't mean we've seen the low for the year here. I expect more weakness later this summer into the fall. But that's just another guess as usual. GE was higher along with the market and I have no trades planned there for now after missing this upside move. Gold was flat today but the XAU was up about 5 points in sympathy with the overall market. ABX rose about 1/2, GG up 7/8 and NEM gained 1 3/4. Volume was light compared to lately. The dollar took a big hit today as the flight to safety trade wasn't popular today. ABX didn't move up as well as it should have considering todays market action. Thankfully I'm not in a trade there at the moment. Technically the gold shares look like they could still move higher here. However if we get a sustained up move in the stock indices, gold could lose some of its luster. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So what's the next move? My thinking at the moment is to get some OEX puts when we reach the down trend line that comes into play at about 505. If we get there and we are short term overbought, that will be the play. Could happen next week. That's my idea for now. End of the month tomorrow and a long holiday weekend coming up. I would expect volume to be light. I'd ideally like to have the OEX puts before next Fridays employment report. However the market is never that accommodating.

Opened higher and closed lower today as the Dow lost 69 points. That type of price action usually isn't a good sign. We were up well over 100 points early. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was pretty good again. We are oversold and not even getting a decent bounce. It could be dangerous to the downside here. We're about to cross the zero line in the summation index and a crash is possible. Normally there isn't even a threat of a market breakdown barring an abnormal event such as a terrorist attack. However we are now at a critical technical juncture concerning the market itself. We need to turn around in a hurry but I expect weakness tomorrow. We'll see. I still may be interested in the GE calls since GE is showing good relative strength. Gold was up $15 today but the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX fell 1/2, GG was flat and NEM lost 1/3. Volume was average. The dollar had another good day. Perhaps I'll try the gold shares here again but it's risky. However there is still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I really think that tomorrow could be a crazy day. We are oversold by all accounts here. I'll have to go over everything tonight and decide if I'll try the GE calls or the ABX calls. But if we do collapse it'll probably be a couple of days. Hopefully I'll be wrong as usual and the market will find its footing here. But I won't be surprised if it doesn't.

An interesting day as we opened very negative, down over 250 points and made it almost all the way back. The Dow lost 22 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. I tried to buy the GE calls but my order wasn't filled. It came within a penny of getting filled but it didn't happen. I'm leaving the order open as I expect some weakness on Thursday. This is probably the start of a short term bounce and I'm not happy missing it but what can you do? Still oversold but when you have action like today, you expect some upside near term. If for some reason we start to drop again here then the market is really in trouble. Gold was up $4 and the XAU rose 5 points. I also was looking at the ABX calls but they never showed any weakness and I did not place an order. We actually could be starting another up leg here for the gold shares. The relative strength is very strong once again. One day we are weak on strong metal prices and the next day we are up on the gold shares without the metal participation. So it's a confusing scenario as well. ABX and NEM up 1 1/4, while GG gained 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. The Gold/XAU ratio signal was valid and it is still in place. I may try the ABX June calls, we'll see. If we get a reflex rally it could damper the flight to safety play though. So there are a lot of crosscurrents in all the markets at the moment. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep long enough. So I would expect some strong follow through to the upside tomorrow in the stock market. If we don't see that, then I would be concerned. Gold itself could go either way I think but it's all just a guess. The short term should remain volatile.

The Monday following option expiration is usually the opposite of what happens on the expiration itself. Today was no exception as the Dow lost 126 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are oversold and staying there for now which could be dangerous for the bullish cause. Due for some type of bounce though. The VIX was lower but so were prices and that doesn't add up as well. We are weak and there is no getting around that. I'm still pondering the GE calls for June but haven't made up my mind just yet. On the sidelines for now. Gold had a good day, up $18 on the futures. The XAU was flat. Another example of things just not adding up here. ABX, GG and NEM were all little changed after being higher early on. Volume was light. Still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But when we have gold itself up almost twenty bucks and the gold shares don't do anything, it's time for caution I think. The dollar had a pretty good day as well. That doesn't mean that I won't try the gold share calls here but I'll have to let a base build first. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. End of the month coming up this week and a holiday weekend. Summation index still heading lower. Is there any reason to buy stocks here? I certainly don't know. Key support comes in at around 1060 for the S&P 500 in my opinion. I don't have a good idea of what to do here even after going over things this weekend. So I'll most likely sit it out this week. Maybe I'll see something going over the charts tonight but I feel it's time to be cautious. Option premiums are high as well. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Started to bounce today as the Dow gained 125 points on expiration Friday. Volume was very heavy again and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Deeply oversold and the expectation is for some relief and we got that started today. How far we go higher and the strength of of the move is the question. I'd expect more upside on Monday. GE opened with a gap down and was much lower at the open. However my call ticket wasn't filled. GE came all the way back to finish up a dime but the options barely moved. I canceled the open order and will re-evaluate this idea over the weekend. Gold was off $12 on the futures. The XAU was up 1 1/4 in sympathy with the overall market. ABX and GG were flat after being down early. NEM gained 1/3. Volume was average. The dollar finished off a touch. Gold and the gold shares are short term oversold here but technical damage has been done to the recent up trend. I'll probably stay away from trading the gold shares here for a while but you never know. Mentally I'm doing OK. An interesting week just concluded but it wasn't profitable for me. I should have recognized the situation a lot better. So it goes. I expect that we'll mover higher here and at the least stabilize things for a while. But I don't see any great rally like we just witnessed from the March 2009 lows. I expect lower prices down the road which will set up a buying opportunity in the autumn. That's my guess at the moment. So I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and see if there is a trade for the June option cycle. Perhaps GE, we'll have to wait and see. When we dropped early today and the GE call order wasn't filled it sometimes tells you something about what is going on. GE may not have enough price movement to be a viable option trade. Things to ponder. For now it's Friday afternoon and the weekend is here.

It's liquidation mode as the Dow got clobbered and lost 376 points on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. It's a run to the exits. Now we are deeply oversold and due for a bounce like we saw a couple of weeks ago when the Dow soared over 400 points in one day. The McClellan oscillator is back in that extended oversold range. I have an order in for some GE June calls to try and take advantage of the supposed upcoming bounce. It's entirely possible that we just continue to collapse here as well. That's because there are things going on that just aren't reflected in the technicals. We saw this before in the autumn of 2008. It would probably be wiser to just step aside here but I'm going to take a chance with the GE calls if they get filled. Gold fell another $5 and was lower in the aftermarket as well. No flight to safety there yet. The XAU was off 7 3/4. Still have a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. ABX fell 1 3/4, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM led the way lower by 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares have broken their up trend lines from the lows of February. Perhaps we'll get a snap back to that line but it looks like the gold shares are going to take a rest. We'll see. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help gold. Crosscurrents there at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Option expiration tomorrow and that will have an impact on trading. I do expect strength in the market at the beginning of next week and that is why I've got an order in for the GE June calls. Again, this may not be the smartest thing to try considering my track record of late. Especially the latest ABX call trade just completed that blew up in my face. However when there is perceived opportunity I've got to try and take advantage of it. I could be wrong. The fear level has reached extremes but it could go even higher. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.

It was another downer as the Dow lost 66 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. We are in liquidation mode, for whatever reasons. Oversold and staying there which is never a bullish scenario. I still feel that there will be weakness into the end of this week but probably not enough to try the OEX puts with 2 days to go. But you never know. Summation index continues lower. It isn't a meltdown just yet but could be later this year. Volatility remains higher than average. Gold dropped over $20 today and the XAU fell 6 and change. ABX off 1 3/4, GG down over 2 bucks and NEM fell 1 1/2. Volume was heavy. My ABX calls got killed. It was a 90% loss. I didn't have a stop loss order in but it dropped so fast not even that may have prevented the devastation. But that's what happens when you trade the options during expiration week. It can work out big for or against you. The Gold/XAU ratio is back on a buy signal but there isn't enough time for the May option cycle to take advantage. I simply blew that trade. It didn't feel good when it got filled and time was not on my side. Should have exited yesterday but hindsight is always profitable. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I really should just step aside here and let the May expiration pass. But I still think there could be a trade in the OEX puts if we get a bounce tomorrow morning. Very risky though and there's the problem of just trying to make back the money that was lost today. That is never a good strategy. I also expect a decent move to the upside on Monday. But it's all just a guess and my guesses haven't been right lately. The prudent path would be to sit out the next 2 days and take it from there. We'll see.

Opened higher and closed lower as the Dow lost 115 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was good. Summation index still heading lower. The market just isn't going to cooperate for me to try the OEX puts. We are headed lower but subject to a bounce at any time. The risk of trying the OEX puts at this point probably outweigh the reward. We'll see but I don't think I'll be trying it. We are oversold but I would have to see a move back to the daily down trend line to chance the OEX puts. I don't see that happening in the next 3 days. Gold lost $13 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX was flat, GG lost 1/4 and NEM fell a buck. Volume was average. My ABX May calls are still at a loss. This is a trade that doesn't feel like it is going to work. The dollar is soaring and that is keeping a lid on the price of gold. I'll really need to be ready to dump this trade tomorrow. We did hold the daily up trend line in ABX today but any weakness tomorrow will break it. We'll see what happens overnight. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well or enough. The market cannot get any traction here and I am expecting lower prices going into the end of the week. But anything can happen in such a short time frame. My focus will be on ABX and the price of gold. If we get any type of strength early, I'll have to get rid of those calls. It looks from here that it will be a cut the loss trade. 3 days left in the May option cycle.

We were down for much of the day today but the Dow came back and managed a gain of 5 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I'm expecting a positive bias for the beginning of the week. I would expect tomorrow to be an up day. My game plan is to buy the OEX puts at some point on Wednesday if we are higher. It's all subject to change and as usual I could be wrong. Often am. Oversold here and due to bounce again. Gold was flat on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The XAU lost almost 4 points. ABX and GG were off around a buck. NEM dropped 2/3. Volume was average. I put in an order for some ABX May calls last night and it got filled this morning. I did not expect that. Not a lot of money in this trade and it is showing a slight loss. Risky, that is why I don't have the usual amount of money that I would normally trade here. This already has the feel of a trade that I don't want to be in. I'm out tomorrow or Wednesday. The dollar was much higher today and then moved all the way back. With gold weakness in the aftermarket, perhaps the flight to safety trade is being taken off the table. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, did not feel well yesterday. 4 days to go on the May option cycle. So now I'm in the next trade and it may be that I am just late to the table on this. I like the OEX put idea for later in the week better. However the ABX calls will be the focus for now. We'll see what gold does overnight and go from there.

Volatility has returned as the Dow lost 162 points today. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative and the volume was average. I was hoping we would hold up until Monday but it was not to be. I still might try the OEX puts next week but the risk will be high. Again, the timing will have to be good to succeed. There isn't really a clear signal and the short term trades are not my strong suit. However, the summation index continues lower indicating that the trend is down. Gold was pretty flat on the day. The XAU rose a point. ABX up 3/4, GG up 1/4 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was heavy again. The gold shares opened higher, sold off early with the general market and then came all the way back. Who knows, perhaps I'll try the gold share calls next week. The relative strength remains strong. The volume in the ABX May 45 calls today was extremely heavy. That is where I will be looking but it may be too late there as well. The dollar was very strong today as well, which may have affected the price of the metal. We are overbought on the gold shares but have been for quite a while. Option expiration week is coming as well. It will be interesting. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There will be opportunities next week. Whether or not I can take advantage of them is the question. We all know that it won't be easy. With 5 days to go on the options, things will get compressed. I have the feeling that I'll be trying to do something though. I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and come up with a strategy for next week. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Selling in the last couple of hours took the Dow to a loss of 114 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. You had to expect that we weren't just going to go up in a straight line here. I do think that the OEX puts will be the next trade before the May expiration. The timing is the key. Perhaps today was the time to buy. I think the optimum scenario would be to purchase them early next week. So I'll be looking for the market to try and head back to around 532 on the OEX and go from there. Gold was off $13 on the futures and the XAU lost 3 1/3. ABX down 7/8, GG off 3/4 and NEM dropped 1 1/2. Volume was average. You've got to figure that the gold shares need a rest too but they have been so strong lately that any drop could be short lived. I don't know if I'm going to try a trade there in the next 6 days because we are overbought and have been for quite a while. But we'll see. The dollar was higher again today. Perhaps if we do drop next week the flight to safety trade will still be in play. Mentally I'm doing OK. So we've had a decent bounce in the indices and the next question is what's next? I would expect some type of retest of the lows of last week but I don't think it will be extreme. I'd like to see the VIX reach 22 in the next couple of days to attempt the May OEX put trade. That's probably wishful thinking. I think that I will let tomorrow pass and then look to do something early next week.

The Dow continued to move higher today with a gain of 148 points. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The market has a feel that it just wants to go higher. It's as if last week never happened. I certainly don't know what the reasons are. We've worked off the oversold condition. I sold the OEX calls I had at break even. Though it feels like we're going to go higher, the option premiums were not moving like I had expected. I was lucky to just get out. This was a trade that I should never have attempted. We had a huge move in the right direction and these options didn't show a profit. Gold was up another $22 today. The XAU only rose 1 3/4. ABX was off 1/4, GG was flat and NEM up 1/2. Volume continues very heavy. I am going to hold off on a gold share trade for now. They are overdue to take a rest. But who knows? There's still 7 days left in the May option cycle. The dollar was up a touch again today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. I'm thinking about the OEX puts for my next trade, perhaps next week. Not exactly sure though. The McClellan oscillator is quickly heading back to the zero line. If we break through it, higher we will go. My thought is that we will stall there and head back down. But that's a guess. It is possible that we just go higher from here all the way through expiration but I doubt it. I'll be checking things over tonight and go from there.

We were lower, we were higher and we ended down on the Dow for the day by 37 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were positive. I really don't know why I am still holding on to these OEX calls. They got to break even today but now they are back in the red. We are working off the oversold condition and I am quite sure there will be another run down in the indices before May expiration. Really need to dump them tomorrow. Gold was up $20 on the futures and is at an all time high in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 7 1/2. ABX rose 2, GG and NEM about 2 1/2 apiece. Volume exploded to the upside. The gold shares are the place to be. You cannot ignore price and volume. That is where my focus should have been. Another missed move for me but we've heard that before. The dollar was up a touch today. Gold has taken on a life of it's own. I suppose the next time the gold/XAU ratio is in the buy zone, I'll give that a try. Mentally I'm doing OK. Hopefully we'll get some strength for the indices on the open and I can get rid of the OEX calls. Probably should have just sold them today. We've already had the bounce. We'll see how it goes tomorrow but I'm not optimistic.

Quite a snap back rally as Europe cut a bail out deal over the weekend. The Dow rose 404 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 10 to 1 positive. We were deeply oversold on the McClellan oscillator, so todays action was not a surprise. Where we go from here is the question. The OEX was up 20 points and my calls are still losing money. Bad timing there. I'm looking for some follow through to the upside tomorrow morning and then I really have to get out. There's a slight chance that I will hold them until Wednesday. But this obviously was an ill advised trade. Gold sold off hard early but came back to be down around $9. The XAU was up almost 5 points. ABX rose a point, GG up 3/4 and NEM tacked on 2 points. Volume was good. There remains interest in the gold shares. Perhaps that will be the next trade for the May cycle. The dollar sold off today as well but then came back. The gold share charts have worked off their overbought condition. There could be more room on the upside there. When I'm done with this OEX trade, I'll be looking there next. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. So we got the bounce and it was a good one. I expected my OEX calls to make it back into the black but it didn't happen. This is a trade that I need to get out of due to the volatility in the markets at the moment. Perhaps tomorrow but Wednesday at the latest. Anything above break even would be considered a success.

A lower end to quite a week as the Dow dropped another 140 points. Volume was very heavy for the second day in a row. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We're in a tailspin here and the volatility is incredible. It is a rerun of the autumn of 2008 at the moment. Very oversold and I am counting on a short covering rally here to exit my OEX calls. This should occur in a day or 2. The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside. A bounce is inevitable. It probably won't turn the OEX trade profitable but it should cut the loss. The employment report today was a non event with all the market turmoil here. Gold was up $5 on the futures and another $10 in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 2 3/4. ABX off 7/8, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost over a buck. Volume was very heavy here as well. The gold shares haven't been following the metal here and that to me is a warning sign. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help the gold shares. Strangely enough there is a buy signal right now on the Gold/XAU ratio. Either the gold shares are going to rally strong from here or the price of gold is going to drop. Stay tuned. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Obviously I should have never entered the OEX call trade but who knew that the market was going to implode? It is still being blamed on some type of order mistake or computer glitch. That doesn't make things any better though. So I'll have to mitigate the loss and I'll do that on Monday or Tuesday. I've checked my records and whenever we get readings like the ones we have now on the McClellan oscillator, there is a one day snap back move to the upside. I'm counting on that and expect to see it at the beginning of next week. Right now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break in the action. I'll check the charts over the weekend and get ready for Monday.

Volatility exploded today as we had a mini-crash in the stock indices. It is being blamed at the moment on a trading error at a major NYSE firm. The Dow lost 348 points today after being down almost 1000 points. The volume was huge. I can't get an accurate number right now on the advance/declines but suffice it to say they were very negative. The McClellan oscillator is now deeply oversold. It is in the area where a bounce should occur. With that in mind I actually purchased some OEX calls today. Not a wise move. They are showing a loss. This will be a short term trade of a day or two. We'll see. Gold was a safe haven play again as it rose about $20 and even more in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 3/4 however. ABX and GG were up 3/4 and NEM rose over a buck. Volume was heavy. We are just about at another buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio, even though we are overbought. The dollar continues higher as well. At some point gold will have to notice the dollar strength but the safe haven trade rules for now. We are now over $1200 on gold and obviously that was the area to trade. Still may not be too late. Mentally I'm a bit weary from todays action. Tomorrows employment report seem like an afterthought with all the problems in Greece. The prudent thing to do here probably was to stay on the sidelines. I didn't and it will probably cost me. That said, The McClellan oscillator is blown out to the downside here and a decent bounce should occur. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Down another 60 points today as the tone of the market has changed. Volume was good again. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now moving down. Rallies can and will be sold. I will buy some OEX puts when we get a snap back. I would like to wait until next week but we'll see. The employment report on Friday will be the next event. I think that I will let it pass before taking on the next trade. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX and GG were little changed after being much lower early. NEM lost 3/4. Volume was average. The dollar continues higher but gold refuses to sell off. I'm still thinking of getting some ABX calls again but am holding off for now. It's a tough call there. We're working off the overbought condition but a stronger dollar will eventually have a negative effect on gold prices. The question is when? However with all the problems in Greece, the safe haven play of gold remains in effect. So it's a tough call one way or the other. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. Volatility has returned and it makes things a bit more difficult. The speed of the game increases. If I had to guess, I think we're about to get some kind of bounce here. But I could be wrong.

Back to the downside as the Dow lost 225 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. I am going to say that the top for the stock indices is in for a while. The weekly charts show an A-B-C-D-E, 5 wave pattern from the lows of March 2009. Tops are made with volatility and that has certainly returned here. If we get any type of snap back move it can be shorted in my opinion. I'm still looking towards the OEX puts but it may be too late. Todays action should put the summation index in a clear downtrend. Gold dropped $14 on the futures but came back a bit in the aftermarket. The XAU fell a couple of points as the gold shares held up rather well, which has been the case as of late. ABX and GG were about flat after being lower early. NEM lost 2/3. Volume picked up. The dollar was up 1% on the day and gold finally reacted lower as it should. But the gold shares relative strength continues here, so I won't rule out another ABX call trade before expiration. Plus with all the uncertainty regarding Greece and the euro here, safe haven plays could be in vogue for a while longer. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Volatility in the stock market has returned. It makes the trading game a lot tougher but when isn't it tough? Option premiums are raised during times like these which makes things more expensive. That in turn increases risk. There's a chance I may just let this week pass and wait until the employment report is digested. We'll see.

Starting the month of May on a positive note as the Dow gained 143 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Back and forth we go here. Building a top or ready to go to recovery highs? That is the question here. Summation index is trying to break down but it hasn't yet. Actually more oversold than overbought here. I'm not exactly sure what to do here but I'm leaning towards the OEX puts near the end of the week. That's todays guess. Employment report on Friday. Gold was up a couple of bucks today but the XAU fell 2 1/2. ABX off 3/4, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost over a buck. Volume was light. Gold remains strong with the dollar rising as well. The gold shares diverged today from the metal and that could be trouble. Or not. We may have just taken a day off from the uptrend. Overbought here though on the gold shares. However volume was light on the pullback. I'm still considering buying some ABX calls again before expiration. Risky though. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Was today beginning of the month money flows or something more? Lots of questions here and that isn't usually conducive to profitable trading. I'm still leaning towards the OEX puts before the employment report but we'll see. Gold is overbought but it looks like it wants to try new highs. A lot to think about as usual but I don't see any clear picture as to what to do just yet.

Back to the downside with a vengeance as the Dow lost 158 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. More bad news for Goldman Sachs is the excuse. Perhaps locking in some monthly profits at the end of April. Today solidifies my idea of purchasing some OEX puts. I will most likely do so on some strength next week if we get any. Summation index should be moving lower. The weekly candlestick charts for the major indices will have bearish engulfing candles. I think lower prices are ahead. Gold continues to find buyers as the metal rose $12. The XAU was only up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume. They were all higher early. I still may purchase some gold share calls if they ever pull back here. However ABX is at the top of its trend channel on a daily basis. So it may be time for a break. Still, you cannot deny the relative strength of the gold shares here. Obviously I should have held those ABX calls longer. Mentally I'm doing OK. So the week has ended and the tone of the market in my opinion is changing. If we get any kind of bounce back up next week, I believe it can be shorted. At some point next week I'm going to try the OEX puts. The gold shares may have to wait. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's time to take a rest.

Continuing to the upside as the Dow gained 122 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. That 200+ point decline on Tuesday? Forgotten for now. The summation index will be moving sideways once again. Hard for me to make out exactly what is going on here. Sell-offs don't have any staying power. Are we going back for new recovery highs? Seems like it. I'm still thinking about getting the OEX puts when and if we get overbought next week. Gold was off $3 but the XAU rose 2 points. ABX and NEM both had more gains but GG not as much. GG disappointed on its earnings report. Volume was above average again. We are overbought here now on the gold shares but staying there. I may try the ABX calls again if we get some weakness. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal. The volume continues to be good to the upside. Money is flowing into gold assets. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. GDP tomorrow and that will be the early market theme. I'm considering leaving in an order for some OEX puts but I think I'll wait until next week. Plenty of time remains on the May option cycle. Still thinking about the last ABX call trade but trying not to dwell on it. It's where we go from here that matters.

Got a bounce back today as the Dow gained 53 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Fed said nothing new and the market was in positive territory for much of the day. Spain has joined Portugal with a downgrade of its debt and that has led to some jitters. Getting short term oversold here but I'm still leaning towards the downside. The summation index is starting to head lower. We do have the beginning of next month approaching and that could lead to positive money flows. So it's a mixed bag but I'm thinking of perhaps some OEX puts before the employment report. We'll see. Gold was up $11 on the futures and the XAU rose 4 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1 1/2 on heavy volume. The ABX earnings were stellar. I sold my ABX calls for about a 120% profit. It wasn't a good trade. I could have done better had I held them longer during the day. Money continues to flow into gold due to the foreign debt uncertainty. Those problems are also supporting the dollar which was up a bit again today. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal itself and that's a positive. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I'm disappointed in the ABX trade. Even though I was aware of the earnings coming out, I really wasn't mentally prepared. I still think there is room to run here on the upside for the gold shares. I might even try them again in the May option cycle. However that trade is done and it's time to move on. OEX puts perhaps. I'll be checking the charts tonight.

The Dow got clobbered today as testimony from the executives at Goldman Sachs took center stage. The Dow lost 213 points on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. Could this be the start of a multi week decline? Perhaps. It certainly is overdue. There were concerns over Portugals debt today also. Maybe they will be joining Greece as the reason for the fall in the Euro. Todays action was negative and we'll see if there is some follow through tomorrow after the Fed announcement. Gold was higher today, up $8 and higher in the aftermarket. However the XAU lost 1/2. ABX and GG had fractional gains, while NEM was flat. Volume increased. The gold shares held up rather well considering an over 200 point down move in the stock market. The dollar had a very good day as well and gold rose anyway. These look like flight to safety plays. NEM had great earnings but the stock did nothing and was down most of the day. ABX reports tomorrow and I'll hope it doesn't do the same thing. My ABX calls are still in the black. Gold looks like it is breaking through $1160 in the aftermarket as well. So decisions will have to be made tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good enough. My eyes will be on the ABX reaction to the earnings tomorrow. The gold shares showed great relative strength today compared to the overall market and that can't be ignored. However I also cannot hold on to this trade forever either. The technicals are not overbought yet for ABX. Which makes it easy to continue to hold it here. But the dollar is rising and that isn't good for the price of gold, despite todays action. Plenty to think about as I wait for tomorrow morning.

The Dow ended flat for the session, after being positive for much of the day. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was average. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Fed is meeting this week, with the announcement on interest rates to come on Wednesday. The market could be in a holding pattern until then. We've got the end of the month coming up on Friday as well. We're a touch overbought here. I do expect weakness by Friday but perhaps we won't wait that long. That's a guess. Gold was flat today as well as the XAU. ABX, GG and NEM all didn't do much and the volume was extremely light. The dollar didn't do much today either. My ABX calls are still slightly in the black. Earnings on Wednesday and that should be the exit date. We'll see. NEM reports tomorrow. Gold hasn't made it through $1160 but if it could it would help the bullish case. Plus it would probably help my ABX calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good. So it's a waiting game until Wednesday morning and then how ABX reacts to the earnings. Not to mention how I react to whatever happens. That's probably the more important piece of the trading puzzle. And we have the Fed to contend with. So it will be an interesting week.

Overbought again on the Dow as we gained another 70 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Volume was average. I was expecting some weakness at the end of the week and all we got was a hundred points down early Thursday morning that was quickly erased. Hard for me to figure. You can't ignore the price action though. We are just about at the 200 day moving average for the S&P 500. That should be a barrier to further upside next week. But who knows? Gold was up over $10 and the XAU rose 1 7/8. ABX, GG and NEM only managed fractional gains to the upside on light volume. This is worrisome. When the major gold shares can't rally when the metal itself moves higher, it isn't a good sign in my opinion. The dollar was lower today as well but all we got were fractional moves higher. My ABX calls are showing a slight profit but it is tenuous. The overall market is overbought and any drop will affect the gold shares. Earnings are out for ABX before the bell on Wednesday and that is the key. The technicals look OK, we're not overbought as yet. If gold could bust through $1160, that would be a plus. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. The market continues to defy logic here but it must be respected. Nothing seems to be able to bring it down. Not even for a few days. Eventually something will be a catalyst for a multi week downtrend. However we haven't seen it yet and the trend remains up. Bad news is ignored and that is bullish. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend. The game plan for now is holding the ABX calls until the earnings on Wednesday. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market tried to sell off once again but we came back for a gain of 9 points on the Dow. Volume was good and the advance/declines were positive. The market tanked early, down over 100 points. Somehow it rose steadily from the bottom for most of the session to get positive. I expected some weakness but it didn't hold. I'm still thinking that we are building a top here. Summation index moving sideways. Gold sold off early as well and ended with a loss of $6. We were down over $15 there early. The XAU gained almost 2 points as the gold shares outperformed the metal. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains to the upside on light volume. The gold shares continue to show good relative strength vs. the S&P 500. The dollar was up again today as well but the gold shares managed gains. Volume is lacking though. My ABX calls moved slightly into the black. The game plan of waiting for the earnings next week is still in place for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm still expecting some near term weakness for the stock market but the market itself is saying otherwise. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The Dow ended the day up 7 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened higher but then dropped about 50 points in the afternoon. A late day comeback pushed us into positive territory. Tough to say what's going to happen next but I would not be surprised by some weakness for the end of this week. It's possible that we are finally building a top here. I could be wrong and often am. Gold was up $9 but the gold shares lagged again. The XAU was up just 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. My ABX calls are still in the red. The gold shares should be rallying on positive movement in the price of gold. The fact that they're not is worrisome. The dollar continues higher as well, which normally isn't supportive of gold. On the plus side the gold shares at least showed good relative strength today compared to the rest of the market. It looks like I'll be holding the ABX calls until the earnings next week barring a catastrophe. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. The market seems to have shrugged off the Goldman Sachs news and hasn't fallen apart as yet. The summation index continues sideways for now. But all that could change on a dime. But it hasn't and that is important as well. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

The Dow gained 25 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Today the overall market was much stronger than the Dow. I'm not exactly sure where we're headed from here. There was no downside follow through so the trend remains up for now. Summation index heading lower though. So we have conflicting data at the moment. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $3 but was higher early. The XAU dropped 1/2 after being higher as well. ABX and GG were flat and NEM lost 3/4. All were higher early too. Volume was very light. My ABX calls are in the red. This trade is looking very shaky. The daily chart now looks like it's headed lower. I'll give it a bit more time. The dollar was up fractionally today but is moving sideways. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep good. So where do we go from here? ABX earnings are out in a week. Can I hold on that long? Is there any reason to own gold here? We could just hang around until next week with the gold share earnings due then. Time decay will affect the option premiums. On the plus side, there is an extra week in the May options cycle. But unless we see some upside in ABX, this trade will be a loser.

The Dow bounced back today, up 73 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was good. The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that isn't a positive going forward. Also the Monday following option expiration is usually the opposite of the Friday action, for whatever reasons. This happens more often than not. So tomorrows price movement is very important for the near term direction of the market. Gold lost a buck today but was lower most of the day. The XAU dropped 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with slight moves after being down early. The volume was very light. The dollar was higher today. My ABX calls are break-even at the moment. They were showing a loss early. Tomorrow will be key here as well. If we see some gains for the gold shares, then this trade has a chance of working out. If we're lower this trade probably isn't going to work. Earnings are out next Wednesday, which seems like an eternity today. I'll have to mull things over tonight. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. I'm not a believer in the market rise today but I hope that I'm wrong, only because I have the ABX trade going. The weekly gold share charts don't look positive unless we turn around here. The daily charts look better for the bullish cause. But the market will go where it wants. Certainly we're overdue for some downside. Tomorrow is important, short term. We'll see what happens.

Well we got some downside today as the Dow lost 126 points on very heavy expiration volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. Goldman Sachs is being charged with fraud by the SEC. That's the catalyst for today. Will it lead to an extended decline? It could, since we have been so overbought for so long. The summation index should be moving down after today's action. But it could also just be a one day wonder. Time will tell and we'll see how it plays out. Gold took a hit as well, off $23. The XAU lost 4 3/8. ABX and NEM dropped 7/8, while GG fell 1 1/4. Volume was good. The dollar showed strength today. The weekly charts for the gold shares are bearish with today's price movement. My open order for the May ABX calls was filled. I did not expect that today. It is actually showing a slight profit because we came off of the lows of the day. I will have to reassess this trade over the weekend. The environment has changed. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. Next week should be interesting. The market has been able to shrug off bad news for the past 3 months. That may change with today's developments. There will be a lot to ponder and I am in another trade. So lots to think about. However now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break in the action.

The Dow gained another 21 points today. Advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was good. Overbought, staying there and this is turning into a broken record. There hasn't been any weakness to speak of in weeks. How long will this go on? Who knows? The technicals don't work when you're overbought for weeks on end. Summation index still moving sideways as prices rise. That will roll over at some point and then we will have some downside. Gold opened lower but finished unchanged. The XAU lost 1 3/4. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG was flat. Volume was light. The dollar gained ground today. I placed an order for some ABX May calls. We'll need to see some weakness for it to get filled. Perhaps next week. Of course I could change my mind depending on what the market does. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. April option expiration tomorrow. We'll see what happens. I would expect to see some type of pullback in the market but I've said that time and time again lately. It's been an incredible run to the upside. But it won't last forever.

The Dow gained 103 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. The S&P 500 crossed the 1200 barrier. Higher and higher we go. Expiration week certainly helps. The volume has been good this week and that's a bullish sign. It seems like there is nothing to stop this rally but we won't remain overbought forever. Gold was up $6 and the XAU rose a point and change. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves on light volume. The dollar was lower. I'm still thinking about getting some ABX May calls. Earnings are out in the last week this month. We're overbought here as well. I'll probably try it on a pullback if we get one. There wasn't any follow through upside today for the gold shares. It could be a short term negative. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We are going to get some negative divergences in the McClellan oscillator unless the market really takes off to the upside. I do not see that happening, with the summation index so high already. So regardless of the markets momentum to the upside here, I'm actually feeling cautious. That's what makes it tough to try the gold share calls. We'll see what happens.

The Dow managed another 13 points to the upside today on average volume. Advances barely beat out declines. We sold off early and came all the way back. Still overbought and have been for quite a while. It is option expiration week. Summation index moving sideways but prices remain moving higher. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $8 today and the XAU dropped 1 1/4. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was up 1/4. Volume was light. It's possible that today was the day to get long the gold shares. We were lower early in the day and came back. The rest of the weeks action will determine if today was actually the day to get long. There hasn't been much volume or price movement on the down days. Mentally I'm feeling tired and unfocused. I need to get back into the proper frame of mind to trade. I've been distracted lately and there will be no success in that type of atmosphere. I realized this, did not try to push it and will go from here.

The Dow gained 8 points to crack the 11000 level today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. We were higher for most of the day. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, which usually means higher prices are ahead. We are just about at the 1200 resistance level on the S&P 500 though. However there is the positive bias of option expiration week as well. We'll see how it all shakes out. Gold was off about $6 today and the XAU fell 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average to light volume. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help gold. We've seen some crosscurrents there lately with that relationship. I'm still looking at the May ABX calls. I need to see the overbought condition worked off first though. We could be in that process now. Mentally I'm feeling tired and haven't been as focused as I need to be. Therefore I don't anticipate any trades until later this week or next. There's still a lot to consider. So for now it's the sidelines.

3 points shy of Dow 11000 as we gained 70 points today. Should pass that milestone on Monday. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Expiration is a week away and that should continue with its usual positive bias. Higher we go and there seems to be no end in sight. But there will be. When that occurs is anybodies guess. Summation index still moving sideways. When that starts to drop, we'll have our sell signal. Gold tacked on another $10 and the XAU was up a point. ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG was flat. Volume was average. I'm looking at the ABX May calls on any weakness. The dollar was weaker today and it looks like it is about to break a multi-week uptrend line. That should support the price of gold. We are getting overbought on the gold shares here but we know that it can last for a while. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling better, slept well. The weekend is upon us. I'll be checking the charts as usual. I think gold is the place to be and will try to enter into a position next week. I am late but there still could be plenty of room to the upside, provided we get a pullback. That's my guess at this point. Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher by 29 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. The market tried to sell off early, held and came back. We are still below 1200 on the S&P 500 and that level will be key to get through if the rally is to continue. Summation index moving sideways. I think we are simply marking time on the summation index until we head lower. The reading is very high. We'll see. Gold was flat today and the XAU as well. The gold shares were mixed on average volume. I dumped the ABX puts for a 55% loss. Thankfully there wasn't a lot of money in that trade and rightfully so. But it is another loss which seems to be the theme here for quite a while. That trade was a loser from the start. The trend there is up and I'll continue to monitor the May calls for an entry on a pullback. However if the overall market rolls over, it probably will take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. 6 days in the April cycle and I get the feeling we will try and test the 1200 for the S&P 500. I hopefully won't be doing anymore trades for this option cycle but you never know. May has an extra week on the options. So I'll move on from this trade and look for something else.

A bit of volatility today as the Dow fell 72 points today on better volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We sold off more than a hundred at one point. I thought we would be higher today and then drop but wrong again. I'm not looking for any big decline here but I suppose anything could happen. However with expiration next week I would expect a positive bias at least until that's over. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $17. The XAU rose 3 1/2 points. ABX up 1 1/4, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up 7/8. Volume increased. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the long consolidation. My open order for ABX puts was filled near the open and it's a loser. I should be cutting the loss tomorrow unless we get a complete turnaround to the downside. And I doubt that. The gold shares showed great relative strength today compared to the overall market. The dollar was higher but gold rallied anyway again. You cannot fight that. This was a short term trade and I was wrong. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So it looks like another losing trade. In retrospect, I should have stuck with the May gold share call scenario. And I still might. I looks like any weakness in the gold shares can be bought here. I may give that a try if the opportunity presents itself. I really need to stick to the longer term trades because I usually do not do well on the shorter term ones. This is a lesson that needs to be learned. I also probably should have just exited the ABX put trade today when I saw that it was going to be a loser. Sometimes you're just wrong, as I was today. We'll see how things open tomorrow and go from there.

The Dow lost 3 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I've got to say that even average volume is pretty light these days. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. That portends higher prices ahead usually. We continue to grind our way higher. Not much data out this week. I don't want to get too complacent but it is April. Sometimes not much happens during this time of year. Gold was up a couple bucks even with a stronger dollar. The XAU lost 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I'm going to try the puts here on the gold shares. I put in an open order for some ABX puts last night and I am leaving that order in. This would be a short term trade in the April option cycle. Longer term , I still like the May gold share calls. For now we are overbought on the gold shares and it looks like the dollar could be turning around from its recent weakness. We'll see. Not a lot of money in this trade and it needs to be filled tomorrow in my opinion at the moment. My thinking is that the overall market will be higher taking the gold shares with it. Then the ideal scenario would be a pull back into the end of the week. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So I'm going to try this trade for tomorrow and go from there. It's risky but all trades are. I think it has a chance for success. We'll know more with tomorrows market action.

An upside start to the week as the Dow gained 46 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the 3 week sideways action. The small stocks are strong and leading the way. The trend remains up until further notice. The rally continues with no end in sight. We will be hitting resistance in the S&P 500 at 1200. But at this rate, we should eventually work through it. Gold was up $7 today and the XAU gained 1 3/4. ABX up 1/4, GG was flat and NEM gained 7/8. Volume was anemic. That has been the problem with this rally in the gold shares. The volume is light. I don't trust light volume rallies. In fact, I'm even considering getting some puts on the gold shares here. The dollar was flat today but with interest rates rising in the US, I don't see a big drop there. We've moved to overbought on the gold shares as well. Only 9 days remain in the April option cycle. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. A bit confused as to what to do here, with regards to an April option cycle trade. The risk is high and I don't have any clear signals as of yet. I may have to stay on the sidelines. I think my focus is a bit off right now, for whatever reasons. I'll work on things this evening and go from there.

The Dow gained 70 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We opened higher, sold off and came back. Really not sure what that means as we await the employment report. Beginning of the month money flows perhaps? Summation index still going sideways. Tomorrow's a holiday, beginning a long weekend. The stock indices have moved sideways for 3 weeks. The employment report could provide the catalyst one way or the other. We'll know on Monday morning. Gold was up again, adding another $11. The gold shares continued to outperform with the XAU up 6 points. ABX up a point, GG up 1 1/2 and NEM up 2. And yes, it looks like I missed it. Volume was a little better today and that has been the one thing that's been missing in the rise of the gold shares this week. Gold itself is at resistance of $1130. If we get through there, the trend will be confirmed to the upside. The dollar was weaker again today, supporting gold. It really looks like this rally in the dollar is over, completing a 5 wave pattern to the upside on the daily charts. There is also a negative divergence in the RSI. I saw this a week ago but did not act on it. Now that it seems legitimate, any weakness in the gold shares next week could be an opportunity to buy. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated for the potential gold share miss. That's what previous bad trades will do to you. They sometimes have a negative carryover effect. The trade potential is there but you don't act on it. Again, there is no one to blame but myself. I'll try and banish those thoughts over the long weekend. I'll be going over the charts but with only 2 weeks in the April cycle, the risk is elevated. That's why May could be a better play. At any rate, I'll await the employment report tomorrow morning. Right now I'm going to take it easy, regroup over the weekend and come up with a game plan for next week.