Thursday, May 27, 2010
We got a bounce today and in a big way as the Dow gained 284 points. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive and the volume was average. There will be no crash for now. The summation index looks like it will hold near the zero line. Unless we do a complete turnaround tomorrow and I doubt it, we should hold in here for a while. That doesn't mean we've seen the low for the year here. I expect more weakness later this summer into the fall. But that's just another guess as usual. GE was higher along with the market and I have no trades planned there for now after missing this upside move. Gold was flat today but the XAU was up about 5 points in sympathy with the overall market. ABX rose about 1/2, GG up 7/8 and NEM gained 1 3/4. Volume was light compared to lately. The dollar took a big hit today as the flight to safety trade wasn't popular today. ABX didn't move up as well as it should have considering todays market action. Thankfully I'm not in a trade there at the moment. Technically the gold shares look like they could still move higher here. However if we get a sustained up move in the stock indices, gold could lose some of its luster. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So what's the next move? My thinking at the moment is to get some OEX puts when we reach the down trend line that comes into play at about 505. If we get there and we are short term overbought, that will be the play. Could happen next week. That's my idea for now. End of the month tomorrow and a long holiday weekend coming up. I would expect volume to be light. I'd ideally like to have the OEX puts before next Fridays employment report. However the market is never that accommodating.
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