Thursday, May 20, 2010
It's liquidation mode as the Dow got clobbered and lost 376 points on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. It's a run to the exits. Now we are deeply oversold and due for a bounce like we saw a couple of weeks ago when the Dow soared over 400 points in one day. The McClellan oscillator is back in that extended oversold range. I have an order in for some GE June calls to try and take advantage of the supposed upcoming bounce. It's entirely possible that we just continue to collapse here as well. That's because there are things going on that just aren't reflected in the technicals. We saw this before in the autumn of 2008. It would probably be wiser to just step aside here but I'm going to take a chance with the GE calls if they get filled. Gold fell another $5 and was lower in the aftermarket as well. No flight to safety there yet. The XAU was off 7 3/4. Still have a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. ABX fell 1 3/4, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM led the way lower by 2 1/2. Volume was heavy. The gold shares have broken their up trend lines from the lows of February. Perhaps we'll get a snap back to that line but it looks like the gold shares are going to take a rest. We'll see. The dollar was lower today but it didn't help gold. Crosscurrents there at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Option expiration tomorrow and that will have an impact on trading. I do expect strength in the market at the beginning of next week and that is why I've got an order in for the GE June calls. Again, this may not be the smartest thing to try considering my track record of late. Especially the latest ABX call trade just completed that blew up in my face. However when there is perceived opportunity I've got to try and take advantage of it. I could be wrong. The fear level has reached extremes but it could go even higher. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.
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