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Friday, June 05, 2026

We often say that the market goes where it wants and todays price action certainly underscores that truth. Stocks got clobbered but the Dow only fell 695 points which wasn't as bad as some of the other stock indices. Volume was heavy. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to drop out of the sideways channel that it's in. The jobs report came in better than expected. The NASDAQ led the way down and fell over a thousand points. That was better than a 4% drop. The S&P 500 lost 200 points for a better than 2 1/2% dip. It was a rush to the exits but the TRAN posted a gain on the day probably due to the drop in the price of oil. The S&P 500 broke through the short term up trend line that had been in effect since the beginning of April. The short term indicators here are now steeply heading south and at this rate will be oversold on Monday. It looks like the sell signal we got last week was valid although it took some time to come to fruition. The negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart worked this time around as well. Not sure how low things will go here but we'll check the charts over the weekend. The advance/declines today were not as bad as the price declines that we saw. Gold got clocked as well with the futures down $166. The XAU lost 31 1/2 and GDX dropped around 7 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. GDX has now dropped well below its 200 day moving average as it did not hold. The short term indicators here are pointing down in oversold territory. 80 was the next level of support here and it closed below that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a huge jump today and closed above the 20 level. That was certainly a surprise to me. Could spell more trouble for stocks. The short term indicators here zoomed up and some still have room to go before being overbought. Things here for the VIX have changed in a hurry. Not sure what comes next. The SPY June puts that I hold went from solid losers to solid winners in a day. Not sure how much longer that I'll hold them but will try and figure that out over the weekend. Plenty of work to do in the next two days. Asia and Europe were lower to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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