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Tuesday, August 06, 2024

We had a nice bounce going today but the market stumbled in the final hour as the Dow gained 294 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down. Stocks finished well off of their highs for the session and that is not a plus. Still short term oversold on the S&P. I can't say that I know what's next here. A retest of the lows? A continued move higher? Not much economic data out this week and most of the major earnings have already been reported. Technical damage has been done though so a period of sideways price action or indecision would not be out of the question. Gold dropped $16 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates were up as well. The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added around 1/4. Volume was light. The gold shares followed the overall market today. More oversold than overbought for GDX but not completely so. My GDX August calls are still showing a very small profit. This is probably a trade that needs to be sold sooner rather than later. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but came up from the lows with the last hour sell off in stocks. The short term indicators here are now pointing down with plenty of room to go. That implies more near term gains for stocks but in this current environment anything goes. Certainly no summer doldrums is about all that can be promised at this point. Asia was mostly higher and Europe finished flat in last nights trade. Japan came back 10% after losing a bit more than that on Monday. We'll see what tomorrow has in store for us.

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