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Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Produces prices came in about where expected and that was enough for the market as the Dow climbed 408 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to moving sideways. The overall market did much better thant the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. It was up almost 2 1/2%. The S&P 500 gained ninety points and is now almost at the 5450 level. The short term indicators on the S&P are now at mid-range or better and moving up with plenty of room to go. I may have to rethink the SPY August put idea at this rate. A decent CPI report tomorrow morning could blow us threw the short term resistance. Or the opposite could happen on a negative report in which case it would be too late for the SPY puts. 454 is the level on the SPY where the short term down trend lies and it is also close to the 50 day moving average. I'll have to decide what to do tomorrow morning. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light as the gold shares followed the market higher. GDX closed above the short term down trend line today but the volume was pretty light. We have to respect price though for now. I sold my GDX August calls in the morning and should have held them longer. This was a trade with a lousy entry price and the exit could and should have been a lot better as well. I did however want to sell them today as we are running out of time in the August option cycle. A strong CPI report tomorrow would probably send the gold shares lower. The gain on this trade was 75%. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits with the good day for stocks. Short term oversold here on the indicators with just a little room to go before being completely oversold. This indicator is another reason that I am hesitating on buying the SPY puts with only 3 days to go in the August option cycle. It too could simply become more oversold as the market heads higher. I will have to look all the things over again tonight and decide what to do. Not to mention that the short term trades are not usually my best efforts. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of India. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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