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Friday, August 02, 2024

The jobs report came in weaker than expected and stocks got whacked as the Dow fell 610 points on heavy volume. At one point it was down almost 1000. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This will have the summation index heading back down. The damage could have been worse but the S&P 500 bounced up from the 5300 level. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I would not be surprised if we see a bounce early next week. However important up trend lines have been broken and the trend is now down. The indicators on the S&P weekly chart still have room to go lower. Plus the summation index has yet to really start to drop. Support comes in where we bounced today at 5300 and also at 5200 for the S&P. The 200 day moving average is at 5000. Worst case scenario is the longer term up trend line at 4600 but that level is pretty far off. We still think that rallies can be sold for now. It is also a seasonally weak time period for stocks the next couple of months. So there is no hurry to invest longer term money at the moment. I did miss out on the SPY puts this time around but that idea should work again here in the not too distant future. Gold ended up little changed on the session after being both higher and lower. The US dollar got clobbered on the employment news and interest rates continue to fall. The XAU lost almost 4 points and GDX shed 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. GDX is now at the up trend line that began in March. I did place an order for the GDX August calls and I'm leaving it out there over the weekend. I may decide to cancel it by Monday. The short term indicators for GDX are not yet completely oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX soared today but came off of its highest levels. It did close above the important level of 20 and at one point was at almost 30. Now that is some volatility. The VIX remains short term overbought and it is rare for it to stay that way for long. I expect the VIX to drop next week and that would fit with a bounce for stocks. But I could be wrong as the markets go where they want. Quite a week it was as there are no summer doldrums in 2024. Plenty to ponder over the weekend and I'll be checking the charts as usual. Foreign stocks got pounded to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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