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Friday, August 16, 2024

It was pretty much a sideways expiration Friday as the Dow was up 96 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The S&P 500 is getting to short term overbought. Obviously we are extended to the upside here for the S&P and some kind of retreat is overdue. I would be surprised if we didn't see some selling on Monday. It has been a straight line up for stocks for a couple of weeks. These kind of moves usually don't end well. However the volatility and declines that we saw seem to have been a bit overdone. Moving into the September option cycle which has an extra week on it. Premiums are high and there is no rush right now for a trade in the SPY. Gold took off to the upside for a new record as the futures climbed $54. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a small dip. The XAU gained 3 3/4, while GDX was up 1 1/8. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX are moving back up and are not yet overbought. It appears that I'm late on the September GDX calls but we'll see what happens as we move forward. This could be a move worth chasing. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX is still moving lower and remains short term oversold. It was a great week for stocks and at this rate new all time highs are not out of the question. But we are in a seasonally weak period for stocks so nothing can be ruled out for now either way. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Europe and Asia were higher to finish the trading week with the exception of the FTSE. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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