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Thursday, August 15, 2024

The data came out and the market liked what it saw as the Dow climbed 554 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving higher. The NASDAQ led the way and was up over 400 points. The S&P 500 is now solidly above the short term down trend line and it is no longer in effect. The short term indicators here are moving up with still some room to go. I suppose I got lucky yesterday when my order for the SPY August puts wasn't filled. The sell signal from one of our indicators is still in effect but it obviously did not work today. It is a reminder that we deal in probabilities and not certainties in this game. The technical evidence weighed in the direction of some kind of pause or sell off but the market just kept going up. I can't say that I have a good handle on things as I ceratinly did not expect the market to move in a straight line up from nine trading days ago. But as always markets move where they want. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX added over 1/8. Volume was light. The gold shares didn't really follow the overall market much higher today. The short term indicators continue to stall here on GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continues lower and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are very oversold for the VIX but that stay that way during rallies. The markets practically straight line up since August 5th certainly qualifies as a rally. However I would be very surprised if we didn't see some kind of selling either tomorrow or Monday. If we don't the overbought condition for the S&P 500 would be extreme. I'm going to let expiration Friday pass and take things from there. Europe and Asia were up overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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