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Thursday, August 01, 2024

Back down again today as volatility remains in control. The Dow fell 494 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. It could have been worse but there was a late comeback in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. I did place an order overnight for the SPY August puts but it wasn't filled. I have since canceled it as we are already heading lower. The S&P 500 is still managing to close at its 50 day moving average. It remains short term oversold but not extremely so. A break of 5400 would imply that we are heading much lower. Tomorrows employment report should provide the key to which way Friday will go. It appears for now that rallies are being sold and the summation index hasn't even turned down yet. Markets always know more than we do. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU fell 2 7/8, while GDX lost 2/3. Volume was light. The gold shares did finish up from their lows on the session. I may place an order overnight for the GDX August calls again. The short term indicators for GDX are hanging around the mid-range area. So it could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits the downside day for stocks. The short term indicators here remain overbought. The VIX doesn't usually stay overbought and it is a warning sign that caution here is the best course of action or inaction. Asia was mixed and Europe down overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

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