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Monday, August 12, 2024

Waiting on inflation data as the Dow fell 140 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to roll back over. We got a signal from the McClellan oscillator on Friday for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. The NASDAQ had a minor gain today and the S&P 500 finished flat. The short term indicators on the S&P are beginning to stall. Producer prices out tomorrow should provide excuses to buy or sell. Still looking at the 5450 level as the spot to try the SPY August puts but we may not get there this week. Also running out of time for the August option cycle. Gold rallied today as the futures were up $37 on geo-political fears. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a bit lower. The XAU climbed 4 2/3, while GDX was up around a point. Volume was average. GDX is getting closer to the short term down trend line at 37.25. A break of that line on good volume would be bullish for the gold shares. My GDX August calls have somehow made it back into the black. The short term indicators for GDX are moving up and have room to go. Perhaps this trade will work out after all. However with only 4 days left in the August option cycle the risk of staying in the trade inceases as the week goes on. I'm thinking the the PPI data tomorrow won't be an upside surprise and perhaps there will some positive follow through for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up slightly today as it hangs around the 20 level. Some of the short term indicators here are oversold. Not sure what's next here for the VIX. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what the market reaction is to the inflation data tomorrow morning and go from there. Asia and Europe were mixed to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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