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Monday, June 24, 2024

Trying to figure out which way to go here as the Dow gained 260 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. This should have the summation index beginning to move sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower on the day with the NASDAQ well in the lead. That is not a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P are turning over but remain well into overbought territory. Overdue for some type of sustained decline but I'm not sure when it's coming. Inflation data and end of the month on Friday. A shortened holiday week after that so we are already into summer trading mode. Makes it tough on the option trades but we'll keep moving on. Gold was up $13 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and it remains below the short term down trend line at 35. Also just below the 50 day moving average. There's a potential head and shoulders top being formed on the daily chart here and we'll be keeping an eye on that. If that pattern takes hold the GDX calls are off the table. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which fits the overall market but not the Dow. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving higher and imply more selling for stocks in the near term. We'll see. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to begin the trading week overseas. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

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