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Friday, June 14, 2024

Stuck in a rut as the Dow fell 58 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Once again the overall market was up with the Dow down. The NASDAQ posted a new all time high. The S&P had a small loss and remains stuck in a sideways channel near term. With the summation index going down the market is holding up rather well and I don't know the implications of that. I did not get the SPY June puts today as we had a gap lower on the open. I'm still in favor of this idea on strength Monday but I'll reconsider it over the weekend. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Gold was up thirty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates just a bit lower. Both the XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares did not follow gold itself that well today and that's a negative. GDX remains short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today. The short term indicators have turned back up and it remains oversold. I don't have a good idea of what's next for the VIX. We'll have the weekend to go over the charts but with only four days left in the June option cycle taking on a trade here may not be worth the risk. The breadth has been pretty negative lately but we haven't seen a sell off. I'm not ruling out the possibility of some kind of spike higher before option expiration but that's just a guess right now. The technical work points to some kind of selling in the near term but we haven't seen a decent down day despite the lower summation index. The game is never easy. Asia remains mixed and Europe was lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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