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Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Inflation data came in a bit less than expected and the market took off. However the final hour saw some selling and the Dow finished with a loss of 35 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still trending lower but might be in the process of turning sideways. The Fed meeting came and went as expected with no surprises. The overall market remains much stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 setting new record highs again. There is no overhead resistance. The S&P has jumped above its upper Bollinger band. It remains short term overbought. I'm still considering the SPY June puts but it may be too late. There is also the possibility that we are going to see a speculative upside blow off here and you do not want to own puts if that's the case. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures after being higher earlier on. The US dollar dropped along with interest rates. The XAU gained almost a point, while GDX was up 1/4. Volume was slightly above average. The gold shares also finished off of the highs on the day. GDX remains short term oversold. I am looking at the July and August calls there. Mentally I'm trying to figure out whether to make a trade here with the SPY or not. The VIX was lower today and that fits the overall market advance that we saw. There is romm for the short term indicators to go lower. Down to the 12 level here and that's about as low as it has been lately. Not sure where it is going next. Producer prices out tomorrow and that may move things one way or the other. I'll consider whether to try the SPY puts tomorrow overnight. Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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