Stocks got clobbered today as the Fed spoke and the market didn't like what it heard. Big tech earnings were not viewed in a positive light as well. The Dow fell 317 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back in a sideways mode. The NASDAQ led the way lower and was off over 2%. The S&P 500 lost almost eighty points. The short term indicators there have now rolled over with plenty of room to go. Yesterday was the time to try the SPY February puts but I missed out. Perhaps too focussed on gold again. No excuses really as we figured today would be a mover and that move was lower. Support for the S&P comes in at 4800 and at this rate we'll be there tomorrow. One day doesn't make a trend but you can make a case for a negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. If that turns out to be valid the 50 day moving average might be the target. We've still got the jobs report to get through on Friday but I think that the main fireworks went off today. Gold finished flat after being up for much of the session. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on good volume. No clear signal going for GDX but my open order for the February calls remains out there. As long as 27.5 holds I'm still willing to give this idea a shot. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today and that fits the down move in stocks. The short term indicators are pointing up with room to go. The VIX implies more volatility and lower stock prices to come after todays movement. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll be looking for some follow through downside tomorrow.

Deciding which way to go here as the Dow was up 133 points in a mixed market. Volume was light and the advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ off over 100 points. The S&P 500 was barely negative on the session and remains short term overbought. Tomorrow we'll see some movement as the Fed decision looms along with the press conference afterwards. The SPY puts didn't get to a price that we wanted to pay and it seems that today was the time to buy them. The S&P futures are already in decline as it appears that big tech earnings are a disappointment. But we'll see how it goes tomorrow. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Once again gold was positive and the gold shares didn't follow. That's a negative. I canceled my current open order for the GDX February calls and replaced it at a lower strike price. Still over two weeks left in the February option cycle. The short term technical indicators are not showing a clear signal here for GDX. However as long as the support at 27.5 holds up I think that the calls would be the way to go. There is also the possiblity that GDX just goes sideways and that would not help with the option trading. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. We aren't seeing any kind of clear signal here either as to what to expect next with this indicator. A lot depends on what the Fed has to say. Of course good or bad earnings will drive things one way or the other as well. Nothing wrong with the sidelines but you won't make any money staying there all the time. I suppose we'll get through Wednesday and take it from there. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 224 points on light volume. The advance/declines shy of 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is now moving back up. We got a pop in the final hour that powered the indexes higher. The NASDAQ continues to lead the way and that is a plus for the bulls. Plenty on tap this week with the Fed on Wednesday, the jobs report on Friday and big tech earnings tomorrow and Thursday. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and staying that way. It does seem to be getting a bit frothy but trying the SPY puts here is risky. However if we do continue higher into the Fed announcement I may give that idea a shot. It would be strickly short term in nature as the upside momentum here is hard to go against. But some of the technical indicators are reaching extremes and that can't last forever. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates dipped. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. GDX bounced around today. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and are approaching mid-range. This is a wobbly light volume rise so far and I still have my open order out there for the GDX February calls. This may be an idea whose time has passed though. If we make another trip down to 27.5 and hold it could be spot for this trade. Remains to be seen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a bigger than usual range today and finished a bit higher. That doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators were higher as well. Not sure what the implications are. However given all the data due out this week it would not be a surprise to see some volatility return. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to begin the week overseas. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Mixed to end the week as the Dow added 60 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. Inflation data turned out to be mild but it turned into a back and forth session for stocks. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished in the red. The S&P remains short term overbought. Medium term overbought as well. I can make a case here for the SPY February puts. If the market holds up ahead of the Fed on Wednesday, that could be the next trade. It would be short term in nature as we have had a valid breakout above 4800. But a trip back to the breakout point would not be out of the question. I'll consider it over the weekend. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. I adjusted down my open order for the GDX February calls. Not exactly sure if this idea remains valid as there isn't a lot of interest in owning gold here. Light volume equals little interest. 27.5 has still held for GDX though so as long as it does I have to believe that the longer term trend line will hold in here and we'll start to move higher. The gold shares should move on what the Fed has to say as well. Which way is always the question. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but did remain above its 50 day moving average. No clear signal from the short term technical indicators here. Perhaps things are just waiting on the Fed next week. There should be no change in rates but the speech that follows could spark some volatility. Plenty of earnings still to come as well. Lots of time left in the February option cycle so that isn't a concern. We'll go over the charts this weekend to come up with a game plan for next week. Europe was higher and Asia mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow led the way higher today as the most watched index gained 242 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index back to the upside. The NASDAQ underperformed today but still managed a small gain. The S&P was higher and remains short term overbought. It is getting far away from its 50 day moving average. Not sure what to expect with tomorrows inflation data but we'll watch the market reaction to the numbers. There is still plenty of time left in the February option cycle. Gold was up $3 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX gained over 1/2. Volume was light. After yesterdays drop the gold shares found buyers today. The short term indicators for GDX have now turned back up. It is a confusing picture at the moment for the GDX daily chart. I still have my open order out for the February calls there but if GDX starts to head lower here I may just cancel it. If GDX continues higher tomorrow then this trade will be missed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that does not fit an up market. Not sure what that means for tomorrow. There is no consensus with the short term technical indicators on the VIX. Some are oversold and some are mid-range. It appears that we'll just have to let this week pass and take it from there but we'll see what happens on Friday. Europe was up slightly and Asia was generally higher. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

An interesting session as the Dow had a one day reversal to the downside. It finished off 99 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 managed gains but they finished well off of their higher for the day. The NASDAQ still has the most relative strength here though. The S&P 500 remains short term overobuht and is hugging the upper Bollinger band. Might be due for a rest but perhaps we're just waiting for the inflation data on Friday. You could make a case for the SPY February puts now but we'll remain on the sidelines in search of a clearer signal. Gold was off a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares had a dramatic reversal to the downside after opening the day much higher. Not sure what happened there or what it means going forward. The XAU dropped 2 1/2 and GDX shed 1/2. Volume was above average. The daily candlestick chart for GDX now has a bearish engulfing pattern on it. The short term indicators have rolled back over. My open order remains out there and I'm going to have to decide tonight if I still want to try this idea after todays price action. This could be a case of where the market knows much more than we do. We are just shy of the support at 27.5 for GDX again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced up today and closed just below the 50 day moving average. Not sure exactly what to expect here next after todays movement. Still in oversold territory here but not extremely so. Todays price action leads me to think that the rally in stocks is going to take a rest. We'll see. A lot will depend on the data on Friday but that is still a day away. We'll ponder what to do with the GDX option order tonight and take it from there. Europe and Asia were both higher with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 96 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 had gains on the day. The S&P remains short term overbought. It feels like the market is just hanging around waiting for the next catalyst for movement. Perhaps Fridays inflation numbers will do the trick. The S&P has broken out to new highs with no more overhead resistance. It appears that the path will be up from here. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares found buyers as the XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX gained almost 2/3. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX February calls wasn't filled yesterday and now the options have moved higher. I'm leaving the order out there for now but it's possible that this is a trade that won't happen for me if GDX continues higher from here. The 27.5 support level has held for now and that's a plus. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with plenty of room to go. I do not think that I'm going to chase it here though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below its 50 day moving average. Getting short term oversold but not completely there yet. The VIX continues to support the arguement for higher stock prices as does the current leadership of the NASDAQ. Plenty of time left in the February option cycle so hopefully we'll see a solid trading signal soon. Remaining patient for now. Europe was slightly lower and Asia mixed once again. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Continuing higher as the Dow added 138 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. The TRAN was the leader to the upside today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. No overhead resistance for the S&P so we could go on a run to the upside. No SPY trades for now as we have just rolled into the February option cycle. Plenty of earnings due out in the coming weeks. Gold lost $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat, while interest rates were a bit lower. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. My open order for the GDX February calls is still out there. GDX did drop early today but for some reason my order wasn't filled. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower again today and has room to move down. It is still stuck at its 50 day moving average. If it can get below that level it should be supportive for stocks. All in all it was a quiet Monday in the stock market. Asia was mixed again and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Moving higher as the Dow climbed 395 points on good volume. The advance/declines were above 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving lower. The Dow closed at a new all time high as did the S&P 500. The NASDAQ once again led the way up for the bulls. There is not overhead resistance for the S&P. The tight Bollinger bands forecast a big move an it appears to be to the upside. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have moved back up. Not completely overbought yet so we could have room to run. The breadth wasn't all that great considering the size of the move but you can't argue with price. The positive expiration week bias showed up late this time around. If the summation index gets turned around we will have much higher to go. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume. GDX did manage to close above the support line at 27.5. It remains short term oversold. I adjusted my open order for the GDX February calls a couple of times today. Could not figure out whether to just purchase them ahead of the weekend or not. I decided that I would leave my order out there at the price that I was willing to pay. I will be looking for it to get filled on weakness if we see any next week. The fact that gold moved up the past two sessions and the gold shares didn't is a concern. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have rolled over. The VIX is implying higher stock prices to come and some kind of rally from here. It closed at its 50 day moving average. Looking back the SPY January calls had a nice move in the past couple of days before expiration. However that was too short of a time span for our comfort. If we had a solid trading signal perhaps we would have given them a try but we didn't. I'm trying to take advantage of simply the best trading opportunities this year and that requires patience. I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend. Asia was mixed again and Europe slightly lower to end the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A rally appeared out of nowhere as the Dow gained 202 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. The McClellan oscillator had gotten pretty negative yesterday and was in an area where normally we have at least seen some kind of bounce. We got that today but will it last is the question. I think that it will as I am still a believer in new all time highs on the S&P 500 at some point soon. I could be wrong. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up or are in the process of doing so. Expiration Friday tomorrow and anything goes there. The daily chart for the S&P 500 looks like it has been consolidating for a month or so. One day does not make a trend but it is possible that we are about to break out to the upside here. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was barely higher and interest rates in general were steady. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. The gold shares not rising with the price of gold is not an encouraging sign for the bulls. GDX is however short term oversold for about a week now. It is also hanging around the long term up trend line support at 27.5. I have my open order out there for the GDX February calls. But I need to decide if I should just purchase the calls here at the price they are at or wait to see if my order will get filled. Also a close below the up trend line would be a bearish development and then the calls would not be the right choice. I'll try and figure out what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and if it continues in that direction it would be a positive for stocks. The 200 day moving average has held the advance in the VIX for now. We'll keep an eye on it moving forward. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how expiration Friday goes tomorrow.

Today seemed like a repeat of yesterday when we were down from the open, bounced around and then finished higher near the end of the day to cut the loss. The Dow fell 94 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. Considering the drop in the summation index, the averages really haven't given up much ground. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving lower with room to go. The Bollinger bands remain tight here, implying that some kind of big move is coming. My guess is still that it will be to the upside and new all time highs for the S&P but of course I could be wrong. We haven't seen the usual option expiration week positive bias yet and there's only two days left. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the S&P for now. Gold was off another twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares appear to be in free fall. GDX has reached the longer term up trend line at 27.5 so we are at the moment of truth. I did adjust my open order for the GDX February calls again and some selling tomorrow would probably get it filled. The longer term up trend line is on a weekly basis, so we could move below there in the next couple of days. As long as the week doesn't close below that level, the trendline would remain valid. The weekly indicators are moving down and have room to go as well so perhaps this is not the right idea at this time. But I'm willing to take the risk here even it it turns out to be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and is now above the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators continue higher with more room to go which implies some more selling to come for stocks. The VIX remains below its 200 day average. A break above there would be bearish but this indicator is still well below the 20 level. Europe and Asia were both down again. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A downer to begin the shortened trading week as the Dow fell 231 points on better than average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 ti 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. It could of been worse as the market recovered from the lows on the session. The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 had less of a downside slant but were lower nonetheless. The short term indicators for the S&P are pointing down but we are still in the vicinity of the all time high. It is options expiration week so we can't rule out a trip up to new all time highs. But we'll let the market decide where it wants to go. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was off twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The gold shares sold off as the XAU fell 4 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/3. Volume was heavy to the downside. I adjusted my open order for the GDX February calls to a lower strike price. The final long term up trend line for GDX comes in about a point away at 27.5. We would like to see GDX reach that level and we'll take our chances with the calls there. Markets rarely, if ever, cooperate. We'll see. Of course GDX could simply continue lower from there as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have turned up with room to go. This implies more selling to come in the near term. The VIX is now touching its upper Bollinger band though and that has the potential to contain things. Some economic data due out this week with retail sales and the Fed beige book tomorrow. Asia and Europe were lower as selling took hold around the world. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Middle East geo-political concerns have returned as the Dow fell 118 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is trending lower. The overall market was a little better with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 eeking out slight gains. The inflation data came in about where expected. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and on the verge of a possible new all time high. The contracting Bollinger bands here imply a big move is coming. Only four days to go in the January option cycle. Do we try a SPY trade before the close next Friday? Doubtful that we'll see a decent signal before then but you never know. Gold took off to the upside on the Middle East tension as the futures climbed $34. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dipped. It wasn't a broad flight to safety but gold got the most mileage out of it. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX was up over 3/4. Volume was good to the upside. My open order for the GDX February calls is still out there but doesn't have much of a chance of getting filled unless GDX heads back down. The question is whether to chase this move in gold or not. Lately when we've seen a big one day rise for gold on military news out of the war torn region it hasn't lasted. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up and have lots of room to go higher. I'm inclined to wait it out for now but we'll check things out over the weekend and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a bit today. Still short term oversold on the daily chart here. A long holiday weekend for us in the US and there will be plenty of time to go over the facts and figures. Not sure exactly what to expect next week but we'll try and come up with a game plan. Asia finished mixed and Europe was higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.

Volatility made a comeback as the market bounced around on the hot inflation data. The Dow was down over 250 points during the session but made it back to finish with a gain of 15 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. Early on it looked like the wheels were going to come off the recent rally. But buyers showed up and pushed prices higher. The market has a feel of wanting to go higher after shrugging off todays bad news of higher inflation. The S&P 500 is getting short term overbought but not extremely so. The Bollinger bands continue to contract. The S&P is setting up for a big move and I still think that it will be higher. We'll see. Gold was all over the place as well and the futures finished with a gain of 5 bucks. The US dollar ended the day unchanged, while interest rates were lower despite the higher than expected inflation reading. The XAU was off 1 1/8 and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. GDX remains short term oversold. My open order for the GDX February calls remains in place. I still like this trading idea though it would be better if GDX moved a little lower from here to reach the longer term up trend line. May or may not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued to move lower and is short term oversold on some of the indicators. It still looks like it wants to go lower which would benefit stocks. Option expiration week is coming up with its usual positive bias as well. Perhaps new all time highs on the S&P 500 by option expiration and not the end of this week as I had previously thought. More inflation data tomorrow and then a long holiday weekend. Asia higher and Europe lower once again. We'll see what Friday brings to close out the trading week.

Moving higher ahead of the inflation data as the Dow rose 170 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that is a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 is on the cusp of a new all time high and I suspect that if the inflation report has no surprises we'll get there tomorrow. The technical picture for the S&P has the short term indicators moving up with room to go. The Bollinger bands are contracting so we could see a big move and my guess is that it will be to the upside. But this is the stock market after all so we'll have to wait and see what tomorrow brings us. No SPY trades in mind for right now. Gold was off three bucks on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX both finished barely negative on about average volume. GDX is short term oversold and I could make a case for trying the calls there today. I did place an open order for the GDX February calls in case we see a drop in gold tomorrow. I'm leaving it out there for now. I did not want to take the risk on the January calls but you certainly could make a case for them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. The technical picture here remains the same. A low VIX below its 50 day moving average is still implying higher stock prices. Europe and Asia finished mixed in overnight trading. We'll see how the market reacts to the inflation numbers tomorrow and take it from there.

The day was spent in a sideways zone after dropping at the open and the Dow fell 157 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. It appears to me that the overall market took today to digest yesterdays stellar gains. The S&P 500 was only slightly lower and the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The short term indicators for the S&P are neither overbought or oversold. My guess is that stocks will move back up tomorrow. Waiting on inflation data Thursday. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was average. GDX closed below its 50 day moving average and the short term up trend line that was support. It is now short term oversold but I'm waiting on buying the GDX calls for now. There is another up trend line that comes in at 28.5 and a longer term one on the weekly chart at 27.5. Those are the areas that I'm looking at to try the GDX February calls. Not sure if we get there or if those levels will hold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are trending lower with room to go. This should be a positive for stocks unless there is some kind of dramatic turnaround. The VIX is another reason to stay positive on the stock market for now. I still think that new all time highs could occur this week. I would like to point out that I missed a trade in natural gas over the past month when UNG got down to 4.5. It has since risen around 50% in about a month. We did look at it when it was down to 4.5 but were not sure if it would simply continue to drop although it was very oversold. I will look to purchase it if it gets back down there again. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks took off to the upside to begin the week as the Dow gained 216 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way and that is bullish. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. We thought that we would be moving higher from Fridays levels but not this much in a day. It appears that the S&P is poised to hit a new all time high. My SPY January calls gained quite a bit of ground and I sold them in the afternoon for a 200% profit. I probably should have held them as it looks like last weeks decline has run its course. However the huge gain in just a day will have to be enough for now. The entry on this trade was good but the exit may be premature. We'll see how things go from here. Gold dropped $16 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight drop as did interest rates. The gold shares held up well perhaps following the overall advance that we saw in the stock market today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on pretty light volume. GDX is trying to hang on to its 50 day moving average and the short term up trend line. I'm still looking at the GDX calls but may go out to the February option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators are around mid-range. The VIX has room to move lower which would be a plus for stocks but we will have to wait and see what it does from here. Inflation data on Thursday and Friday should be movers for the markets. Earnings season begins Friday as well. If we build on todays gains I'll venture a guess that we see all time highs for the S&P 500 by the end of the week. But that's just a guess. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to start the trading week overseas. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow.

It was an up and down type of session as the market tried to figure out how to digest todays jobs report. The Dow managed to finish with a gain of 25 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower but in what I believe will be a sideways channel. The employment report was hotter than expected and the market rallied after the open. Then came a sell off followed by another rally attempt and another sell off. The Dow limped home to the upside to finish the day. The S&P 500 managed a slight gain as did the NASDAQ. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are oversold, others not so much. We are getting a buy signal from one of our indicators on the S&P. I looked to buy weakness today but we didn't see too much. I did however purchase some SPY January calls when the market turned lower in the afternoon. They are showing a slight profit. Management of the trade is something that I'll keep in mind going forward. I'll be looking to take profits earlier this year. Gold bounced around and finished relatively flat on the day. Same for the US dollar. Interest rates had a slight rise. The XAU had a slight fractional loss, while GDX was unchanged. Volume was about average. GDX continues to hold on the support at the up trend line coming in at 29.5. The short term indicators here have the same look as the S&P. Some are oversold, others are mid-range. I do still like the GDX calls at some point but one trade at a time seems to be a reasonable strategy. I'll consider what to do over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and the 50 day moving average proved to be resistance. The indicators here are rolling over and if that continues it would be a positive for stocks. We'll see. I'm in the first trade of the new year. From what we look at the market should move up from here, we just don't know how fast and how much. However signals don't always work and markets go where they want. We'll go over all the charts this weekend as usual. I am confident that this trade will work out to the plus side if I can keep my wits about me. Never easy in this game. Europe was slightly lower and Asia mixed to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still heading lower for the overall market but the Dow managed a gain of 10 points on light volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. The summation index is beginning to form a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower again. We are getting to short term overbought on the S&P 500. I do think that any weakness tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade. We will be looking at the SPY January calls if there is some early selling. This certainly wouldn't be a trade to hold for too long but it may be worth the risk. Not sure what to expect from the jobs report so we held off on a taking any trades for the SPY today. Gold gained $8 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were higher. The XAU had a slight fractional gain and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. I did place an open order overnight for the GDX January calls but it was not filled. We'll get the employment report and go from there. The up trend line support on GDX at 29.5 has held for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed and is at its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are overbought but not extremely so. If the 50 day holds we should see some buying in stocks and the indicators roll over. If not the market will head lower. It looks like tomorrow will hold the key as to where we are going. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe higher overnight. We'll see about the reaction to the jobs numbers tomorrow.

Ringing in the beginning of a new year with a clang as the second day of trading resulted in more selling. The Dow fell 284 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is turning lower. The NASDAQ led the way lower again and that's a negative. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are heading down with room to go. It appears that a decline has begun. The Santa Claus rally was wiped out and that usually means that the bears are now in control. Support for the S&P comes in at around 4600, which is roughly 100 points away. The S&P 500 is still pretty far away from its 50 day moving average. The potential negative RSI divergence was for real this time around. Is it too late for the SPY January puts? Maybe not if we see some kind of light volume rise from here. But we will probably wait for Fridays jobs report and the reaction to that before making a move. Gold fell $25 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat but lower than the worst levels on the day. The XAU dropped 3 1/4, while GDX shed over 3/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. It appears that the buy signal for GDX that we were getting from one of our indicators yesterday was off. That's why it is always better to have more than one signal going in your favor. GDX did make it down to the first up trend line at 29.5 today. It is not completely short term oversold yet though. So we are in the dilemma of whether to try the GDX January calls now or wait until it gets completely oversold. Again, if stocks continue to sell off the gold shares will most likely follow. However there are no guarantees one way or the other. I am now also thinking about the possibility of heading out to the February option cycle with regards to GDX. So as usual there are plenty of questions with no clear answers. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term technical indicators here are heading up and most have room to go higher. A break above the 50 day would be bearish as the VIX hasn't been above that line since the beginning of November. We'll look things over tonight and try to decide which road to take or simply remain on the sidelines. Europe and Asia were lower as perhaps we're in a worldwide liquidation of sorts at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We begin the new year with more of a thud than a bang as the Dow was up 25 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow again with the NASDAQ losing around two hundred and fifty points. Not the start that most had figured including myself. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over though they remain overbought. Not sure exactly what is next here for stocks but if the potential negative RSI divergence comes to fruition we're going lower. I cannot say for sure at the moment that will be the case as every time in the past two months when it looked like a decline was coming it turned out to be a sideways consolidation before moving higher. That may very well happen this time around too. We'll know more by the price action in the coming sessions. No SPY trades in mind for now. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates were higher as well. The XAU dropped 2 1/8, while GDX fell 3/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are approaching mid-range. There is an up trend line of support at 29.5 and another at 28. I should probably remain patient here for the GDX calls but one of the things that we look at trading GDX is near a buy signal. Another issue is also that if the overall market heads lower it will probably take the gold shares with it. Never any easy trades in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off of the highest levels on the session. It did break through its upper Bollinger band during the day. There is plenty of room for the short term indicators to move higher but I'm not sure if that will be the case. There's still plenty of time in the January option cycle to make a trade. The employment report on Friday will most likely be the main mover for the week. We'll look over things again tonight and decide what to do from there. Europe and Asia were generally lower to start the year and begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.