Monday, February 08, 2021
Overbought and staying that way as the Dow gained 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. New all time highs all around the indices. The small stocks are leading the way with the Russell 2000 the outperformer. No overhead resistance for stocks. I'm in a quandry as I would like to try the SPY February puts in the next couple of days but I already own the GDX calls. Six days in a row higher for the S&P 500 and that will not last forever. I don't think that a decline if it occurs will be a big one but I do think that it will be tradeable. GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was pretty light. Lighter volume is also the story for the overall market as we go higher here. That fits in with the overall strategy of trying the SPY February puts this week. Gold found more interest as the April futures rose $18. The US dollar finished little changed. The XAU added 3 points, while GDX was up over 1/2. Volume was light. My GDX February calls are showing a small profit. The short term technical indicators for GDX have now made it back to mid-range, so things could go either way from here. GDX was once again turned back at its 50 day moving average, which has proved to be resistance for over a month. If we see weakness soon in the overall market, the gold shares will probably go with it. I'll consider what to do here overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX ticked up slightly today and that does not fit with an up market. This also could be a precursor to a near term pullback in stocks. The short term indicators for the VIX are now oversold. The SPY put premiums are not exactly cheap but with the proper timing on the entry profits can be had. The question is whether or not I'm up to the task. My other choice at the moment is to simply hold the GDX February calls as the earnings for the gold shares will be out before the February expiration. Never any easy decisions in the game. Europe and Asia were both higher overnight. We'll see if they follow the US lead tomorrow.
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