Tuesday, February 23, 2021
We had an incredible one day reversal to the upside after opening with a huge gap lower. The Dow was off almost 400 points early on and came back to finish with a 14 point gain on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending down but not at a rapid rate. The S&P 500 made a dramatic comeback as well to finish positive. The NASDAQ led the way lower and was off over 500 points early. It didn't make it back to positive territory but it did regain most of the losses. Perhaps today is the turnaround that gets things going back to the upside. I'd guess that in the short term the decline is over. Looking further out, I don't exactly know what to expect. The short term technical indicators for some of the major indices are now mid-range so it could go either way. GE was up a dime on average volume. Gold was off five bucks on the futures while the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU fell 2 3/4, while GDX lost 3/4. Volume was average for lately. I might try the calls here again if we get back to short term oversold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a spike to get above its 200 day moving average and then fell all the way back to close below its 50 day moving average. I don't know if it's the beginning of more volatility or the exhaustion of it. We'll see how it goes in the coming days. I'm inclined to believe that things will go higher from here after todays stock price action but I am certainly not exactly sure. The NASDAQ 50 day moving average held today. Some of the other stock indexes now show positive hammer candlesticks on their daily charts. However I'm still going to remain cautious here. Perhaps that's what the previous losing trades have done to my perspective. The Fed has once again stated that the easy money will continue and you can't really try and fight that. However rates have started to climb and the market is the ultimate judge and jury. The short term indicators on the SPY are getting to mid-range and are still pointing down. I'm on the sidelines until a decent signal appears or I get a better handle on what's going on. Asia was generally higher with Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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