Friday, February 19, 2021
The market is still trying to make up its mind which way to go here as the Dow was up a point on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has now started to move sideways. We bounced around for much of the session and things finished basically mixed all the way around. The short term technical indicators on the S&P 500 remain overbought and pointing down. I do believe that we are just moving sideways here before moving up once again in the near future. I am not expecting a big decline right now. GE was up over 1/3 but the volume remains light. Gold was up $5 on the April futures as it tries to stabalize and did finish off of its lows. The US dollar was lower. The XAU was up a point while GDX was flat. Volume was light. I'll be taking a closer look at gold and the gold shares over the weekend to determine if I'd like to try a trade here again in the March option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite the double losses in the GDX call options this week. Win or lose in the game you have to keep moving on. The VIX bounced around and finished a little lower on the day. Still oversold here in the short term. I'm expecting the VIX to stay that way for a while longer and that stocks will move higher in the beginning of next week. We'll see if that actually happens. We're rolling into the March option cycle and the SPY premiums are pretty pricey. The puts much more so than the calls. Does the options market know something that we don't? Stay tuned. Asia was lower and Europe higher to close out the week. Plenty of work to so this weekend as I try to regroup. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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