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Wednesday, February 03, 2021

Indecision for the middle of the week as the Dow rose 36 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index has stopped moving down. The NASDAQ posted a small loss. Some hesitation here and that's not unexpected in my view. We've dropped, bounced back and now we're approaching the moment of truth. Will things turn back down here or power up to new all time highs? I'm still a believer of the former for now. Just waiting on the employment report. GE was off a nickel and the volume was very light. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 1/2, while GDX was basically unchanged. Volume was light. My open order for the GDX February calls remains out there. I'm going to have to consider canceling it before the jobs report. If the market drops on that report, it most certainly will take the gold shares with it. I'll ponder what to do tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower again today and closed below its 50 day moving average which is a plus for the bulls. Not yet completely oversold here either. There's still plenty of time in the February option cycle for a trade in the SPY. The drawback is that I do not have a clear signal just yet. I will say that the volume on the bounce has decreased with each passing day. Todays price action looks to me that it has run out of steam. Perhaps trying the SPY February puts on any strength tomorrow ahead of the jobs report is the way to go. I'd kind of prefer to wait until next week for that trade though if the market cooperates. It rarely does. It's something else to think about tonight. Asia was up and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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