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Monday, February 22, 2021

It's a mixed up market here as the Dow gained 27 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trending sideways with a lower bias. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ lost over 300 points. I'm not exactly sure what to make of things here as were are getting a buy signal for the S&P 500 on one of my indicators. However the balance of the short term technical measures are far from being oversold. When the Dow is the leader it is usually a late in the bull cycle factor. I've been looking for higher prices and it hasn't happened. Therefore I'm taking a cautious stance for now. We'll get some talk from Fed chairman Powell tomorrow. GE was up 1/2 on heavy volume. Overbought here on the short term. Gold came to life today and the futures rose $25. The US dollar was lower. The XAU jumped almost 7 points, while GDX gained 1 1/2. Volume was good. Is it any surprise that gold and the gold shares decide to rise after the February options have expired? This is just simply part of the game. I'm not inclined to chase things higher here but that could change as we go forward. Gold itself for now has held a long term trend line that has been in effect since 2019. Gold and the gold shares were both short and medium term oversold beginning last week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and closed right at the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators have now turned up. Today could have marked a new beginning for volatility. We'll see how it plays out going forward. The market is sending mixed signals right now as the over the counter market got crushed yet the TRAN closed at a new all time high. I'm on the sidelines for now as the option premiums are high as we start the March cycle. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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