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Tuesday, February 09, 2021

Choppy price action all day as the Dow fell 10 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The NASDAQ was up and the S&P 500 down on the day. I think that we're putting in a short term top here and I expect lower prices for the rest of the week. That's my best guess at the moment. Short term overbought for the S&P and it is due for a rest. Perhaps we'll only move sideways before heading higher next week. Volume is getting lighter the higher we go and that isn't a positive. I do not expect some type of huge decline. GE lost a few cents and the volume remains light. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures but off from the best levels of the day. That was disappointing for the gold bulls with the dollar having a decent drop on the session. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. This too is not a positive for the gold shares as they did not follow gold higher. I'm still holding on to the GDX February calls that I purchased last week. They continue to show a slight profit. I've decided to hang on to them for a while as one of my preferred indicators here is still in a bullish mode. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch higher today and the daily chart looks like it is trying to form some type of bottom. That would fit in with my weaker prices going forward scenario if indeed it is a bottom. I am looking at the SPY February puts for a short term trade. There is however only seven trading days left before expiration as Monday is a holiday to begin next week. Perhaps if we see some early strength tomorrow I'll try the puts with an anticipated exit on Friday. Risky though as the timing would have to be right on. We'll see. Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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