Friday, August 16, 2019
It was a positive expiration day as the Dow rallied 306 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower but may try and turn around here. The positive divergence in the McClellan oscillator came to fruition today. With the comeback in stocks from the debacle on Wednesday, you can make a case that the up trend line on the S&P weekly chart is still intact. That would be a major plus for the bulls. Some of the medium term indicators that I have are signaling a bottom. Nobody is looking for that. Next week will tell a lot in my view. Is it actually possible that we rally from here? We'll see. GE was up 3/4 and the volume was extremely heavy again. Things will get settled there sooner or later. I do not think that GE is going to go out of business. Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar slightly higher. The XAU was off a point, while GDX lost about 1/2. Volume was average. We now have a bearish engulfing pattern on the weekly GDX candlestick chart. Perhaps we'll get a chance for the GDX September calls after all. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Quite a volatile week for stocks as the summer hasn't been as sleepy as one would like. I have no idea what next week will bring. The VIX remains above the 16 level and as long as that's the case, volatility will rule. There's an extra week on the September options so there's no hurry to enter the next trade. We've managed to hold on to the near term support for most of the major stock averages. Some, like the RUT and TRAN have held longer term support levels. Others, like the Dow and the S&P have held their shorter term ones. We are still oversold on the short term technical indicators for the major stock averages. That may be able to support some kind of short term rally here. Beyond that I'm not so sure as we still have the big megaphone pattern on the weekly S&P 500 chart to contend with. I think that a run to new all time highs from here would be the biggest surprise but the medium term indicators contend that isn't out of the realm of possibility. I'll probably be keeping a closer eye on GDX this week to see if it continues to weaken. Another thing I have to contend with is that I'll be out of the office in the beginning of September and the blog will be off line for about a week and a half. I'll be back for the Fed announcement on the 18th. So that has to be taken into consideration as well. Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish the trading week. I'll be checking things over as usual this weekend. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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