Monday, August 26, 2019
A surprise to the upside in my mind as the Dow opened higher and closed up by 270 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways for now. The Dow somehow held up here and didn't follow through to Fridays downside. Support on the S&P 500 held up as well for now. But the rally today was on light volume, so we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. The trade tariff background noise hasn't gone anywhere. GE was up a few cents on average volume. Gold was flat on the session despite a higher US dollar. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on average volume. The gold shares are getting back to overbought on a short term basis again. I'm still waiting for some kind of oversold readings here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX turned around today but that doesn't mean it can't turn back tomorrow. I'll be keeping an eye now on the 50 days moving average here as the support. I'm still in the camp that the recent lows will be taken out in the S&P. Exactly when is the question. Not a lot of economic data out this week and we have a long weekend coming up. So perhaps we will have a quiet week ahead because today really should have been lower in my mind. I thought that quite a few traders would be away from their desks this week and perhaps the light volume is a reflection of that. We'll see how the rest of the week plays out. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.
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