Wednesday, August 28, 2019
Back and forth as the Dow gained 258 points on light volume. The advance/declines were a little better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to tracking sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow and that is not a positive. Volume is lighter on the rallies than it is on the declines. The S&P 500 has managed to hold above the near term support at 2825 and that is a plus for now. The technical indicators remain in the middle of the range so the jury is still out on which direction we head on this consolidation. I was pretty sure we would be heading lower soon but perhaps I am wrong here. When markets go down they usually do so without a lot of indecision like we're seeing now. Time will tell but I'm not taking a position here one way or the other. GE was flat on lighter volume. Gold was pretty much flat as well. The US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume. Remaining overbought here but when hasn't that been the case in the past three months? Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX is either putting in a short term top here or consolidating before moving higher. We'll probably know in the next couple of sessions. Getting ready for a long holiday week for Labor Day and then all the players shall be back. What would really surprise me here is if we made an attempt back to the 3000 level in the S&P. But I have seen rallies before in the beginning of September after a weak August. It throws players for a loop. I'm not saying it will happen this time around but it is possible. With the technical indicators mid range you cannot count that possibility out. I'll be leaving on a trip next week so the prudent thing for me to do is stay on the sidelines and wait to trade when I'm back at my desk. But if I think there's a decent opportunity I may have to leave a position out there. I'll be back the day of the Fed announcement in mid September. For now patience is the name of the game for me. Europe and Asia were mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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